TLDR;
This video discusses silver's recent surge to all-time highs, drawing parallels with gold's behavior after breaking its 2011 high. It anticipates a correction in the near future, followed by a macro higher low and further gains towards the end of the decade. The video also touches on the relationship between commodities, equities, and the S&P 500, suggesting commodities are currently in a bull market and are likely to outperform equities in the long run.
- Silver has reached all-time highs, mirroring gold's post-2011 breakout pattern.
- A correction is expected in the coming months, followed by a macro higher low.
- Commodities are in a bull market and may outperform equities.
Silver's All-Time High and Comparison to Gold [0:00]
Silver has surged to $54, reaching all-time highs. This movement is compared to gold's performance after it surpassed its 2011 high, where it rallied, corrected, and then continued to climb. Silver's current extension beyond its prior all-time high is about 8%, similar to gold's initial rally beyond its high. Given silver's smaller market cap, it might overshoot further. A larger correction is anticipated, possibly around 2026, followed by a low next year before another upward movement.
Anticipated Market Correction and Future Trajectory [2:18]
Silver is currently experiencing a FOMO-driven meltup. A local top is expected to form before the end of the year or by Q1 2026, followed by a drop. This drop is expected to establish a macro higher low, similar to gold's pattern, before silver continues its upward trajectory towards the end of the decade. Gold's monthly RSI is at 92, indicating it is very high. In 1973, gold's monthly RSI reached 94, after which it experienced a 30% drop before rallying 850%.
Commodities vs. Equities and Future Opportunities [4:10]
The next significant opportunity in commodities is expected around a year from now, with lower prices anticipated before a macro higher low forms and prices rise again. The S&P 500's performance relative to gold is weakening, potentially signaling a local or macro top for the S&P 500. Gold tends to recover more quickly than the S&P 500 during breakdowns in this ratio.
Commodity Bull Market and Expected Pullback [6:13]
The current market structure involves macro higher lows in commodities. A 20-30% drop in commodities is expected, likely coinciding with a drop in equities. However, commodities are expected to recover more quickly and continue their bull run. A pullback in silver is anticipated in the next few months, taking it below prior all-time highs, but this is viewed as a higher low before further gains into the decade. A video from five years ago correctly predicted silver reaching new all-time highs near the end of 2025 or early 2026. The expectation is a pullback, sideways movement, and then a rise towards the end of the decade.