Brief Summary
This YouTube video by Ellen May discusses the current geopolitical situation and its potential impact on the Indonesian stock market (IHSG). It covers the technical analysis of IHSG and several big-cap stocks, focusing on potential corrections and opportunities for long-term investment and short-term trading. The video also touches on the influence of geopolitical tensions, particularly those involving Iran and the Middle East, on commodity prices and the Indonesian economy.
- IHSG target has been achieved, further movement will be like technical rebound or continue to rise.
- Focus on commodity stocks due to geopolitical conditions.
- Indonesia is a rich country and benefits from current geopolitical situation.
IHSG and Big Bang Stocks Analysis
Ellen May begins by analyzing the IHSG, noting that it has achieved its double-top pattern target and is currently held at the 100 moving average. She anticipates a technical rebound and advises caution regarding Big Bang stocks, which may still undergo correction. Despite the IHSG's recent decline, she suggests that investors shouldn't be overly concerned, as the drop was primarily driven by DSSA shares rather than banking stocks. She identifies DSSA, Bian, and Goto as large-cap stocks with less attractive fundamentals compared to other investment options.
BBCA and Other Big Banks
The video shifts to an analysis of individual Big Bang stocks, starting with BBCA. Despite large institutional investors still holding profits from April 8th purchases, some are selling due to the recent price drop from 9,800, which they view as a discount. For long-term investors, the valuation is returning to a fair price, and beginners are advised to invest in installments when the stock price declines. BRI has increased 32% from the bottom, with big investors actively trading. BMRI and BBNI have also reached support levels, prompting speculative buying and potential short-term bounces.
Geopolitical Conditions and Impact on Oil Prices
Ellen May addresses the geopolitical situation, cautiously referencing the tensions involving Iran to avoid algorithm restrictions. She discusses Donald Trump's claims of attacking nuclear facilities in Iran and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supply. The closure could lead to skyrocketing oil prices, impacting gasoline, gas, and coal prices, and subsequently increasing distribution costs and inflation. This could affect debt cycles, potentially slowing down the economy and causing a recession.
China's Role and Indonesia's Position
The video explores America's request for China's help in negotiating with Iran to prevent the Strait of Hormuz closure, given China's significant oil purchases from Iran and their 25-year strategic cooperation. This situation could increase China's bargaining power against America, potentially leading to tariff negotiations or the easing of technology restrictions. Indonesia, rich in resources like coal and nickel, stands to benefit from these geopolitical dynamics, particularly as a substitute for oil and through nickel commodity exports.
Commodity Stocks and Sector Analysis
The discussion turns to the impact on commodity stocks, with sectors like oil, gas, coal, and gold expected to benefit. The video reviews oil stocks such as Akra, Elsa, Energi, Metko, Raja, and Ratu, cautioning against entering at the top and emphasizing the importance of sideways movements as a foothold. Energi has increased by 7%, and Mrade has profited significantly, but buying is not currently recommended. The video also touches on buy-on-retracement strategies, using PSAB and PGEO as examples, while warning against blindly following patterns due to changing market dynamics.
Oil Stocks and Trading Strategies
Ellen May continues the analysis of oil stocks, noting that Metco's rally is not as strong as ENRG's and is vulnerable to profit-taking due to resistance levels from May and October 2023. The presence of large dumping volumes indicates distribution by big money. She then discusses Akra, noting that it fell to its lowest level at 2,300, presenting a speculative buy opportunity with fast trading and profit-taking targets around 2780 to 2860.
Coal Sector and PTBA Analysis
The video transitions to the coal sector, focusing on PTBA, which fell 14% due to its recent dividend distribution of 11%. Ellen May, a long-term holder of PTBA, expresses happiness about the dividend and anticipates a potential discount up to 2290, which would be ideal for both investing and trading. She advises buying dividend investing when it falls into a discounted valuation and highlights the current figure of 2510 as interesting for long-term investing.
Gold Sector and BRMS Analysis
The discussion moves to the gold sector, with a focus on BRMS. The fundamentals of BRMS are discussed, including a 212% annual increase in income and a 296% annual increase in profit, supported by rising gold prices. BRMS has undergone quasi-reorganization to improve its financial structure and potentially distribute dividends in the future. Technically, as long as BRMS stays above 388, it remains in a short-term uptrend, but its high fluctuations require a strong understanding of trading strategies.
MBMA and Trading Recommendations
Ellen May shares a watchlist item, MBMA, noting its support at 368 and similarity in character to BRMS. She emphasizes the need for firmness and courage when trading such stocks, which comes from understanding the trading system. She concludes by inviting viewers to join Mtrade Start to learn trading strategies and Mvestart to learn about investing in stocks for beginners.
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