TLDR;
This YouTube video provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market conditions and investment strategies, focusing on the impact of recent financial policies and potential opportunities in various sectors. It emphasizes the importance of money management and portfolio diversification, offering insights for both long-term investors and traders. The video also highlights specific stocks and sectors that are expected to perform well, along with technical analysis and risk management strategies.
- Market Overview and Policy Impacts
- Investment and Trading Strategies
- Sector-Specific Analysis and Stock Recommendations
- Risk Management and Portfolio Allocation
Attendance and Introduction [0:06]
The host begins by taking attendance and welcoming the audience, including investors, Mtraders, and alumni. The host then transitions into a brief overview of the current global market conditions, noting that global uncertainty is decreasing. The host mentions the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates soon, emphasizing that failure to do so would shock the market.
New Minister of Finance and Policy Impacts [1:54]
The host discusses the new Minister of Finance, Mr. Purbaya, and his policy of disbursing IDR 200 trillion to Bank Himbara. The host explains that Himbara banks face a 4% interest charge if they don't lend this money, creating pressure for massive credit distribution. This policy presents a challenge for Bank Himbara, as it may lead to forced lending even to those deemed not creditworthy, potentially increasing the risk of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the future, possibly visible by the second semester of 2026.
Investment Strategies for Long-Term Investors [5:33]
The host transitions to investment and trading strategies, particularly for long-term investors. The host recommends Bank Central Asia (BCA) as the safest long-term investment in the banking sector due to its private ownership and independence from government interference. The host notes that while Bank Himbara shares may see positive sentiment due to the liquidity injection, BCA maintains better control over its credit quality.
Valuation and Portfolio Allocation [6:49]
The host discusses the valuation of bank shares, noting that BCA's valuation remains attractive. For those holding Bank Himbara shares, the host suggests that the current sentiment is positive, leading to potential gains. The host advises investors to consider a balanced portfolio, including dividend-paying stocks from sectors like coal, and emphasizes the importance of money management to avoid being over-invested in any single sector.
Money Management and Psychological Considerations [9:36]
The host stresses the importance of money management, highlighting that "cash is king." The host introduces a portfolio pyramid concept, with cash and cash equivalents at the base, followed by investments and trading at higher, riskier levels. The host advises investors to reduce their positions if they feel stressed by market fluctuations, securing profits and managing risk. The host shares personal experiences of overconfidence and the importance of adhering to one's own investment rules.
Trading Strategies and Portfolio Design [19:08]
The host presents a detailed portfolio design, dividing assets into cash, longer-term investments (like equity mutual funds), and trading (including leverage and futures). For investing, the host recommends issuers with strong market caps and fundamentals, such as BCA. The host also discusses property sector stocks and dividend investing, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach and diversification.
Money Management for Trading and Investing [22:30]
The host explains money management for trading, emphasizing equal allocation across different trades to avoid overexposure to any single stock. The host also discusses strategies for trading third-liner stocks, including pyramid strategies and managing risk through incremental entries. The host reiterates the importance of setting boundaries and limits to maintain a balanced portfolio.
Portfolio Allocation and Risk Management [27:32]
The host addresses a question about managing undervalued stocks that grow to dominate the portfolio, emphasizing the importance of setting initial allocations and boundaries. The host uses a hypothetical example of a 1 billion IDR portfolio to illustrate how to allocate funds across cash, investments, and trading, providing specific amounts for each category. The host also discusses strategies for managing third-liner stocks, including dividing funds into smaller portions and using pyramid strategies for entry.
Economic Risks and Investment Philosophy [36:38]
The host discusses the risks associated with excessive liquidity and credit distribution, referencing Ray Dalio's concerns about potential bubbles. The host emphasizes the importance of balancing credit distribution with increased productivity and income to avoid economic instability. The host also reiterates the need for investors to be comfortable with their investment strategies and to continuously educate themselves.
Coach Hanin's Market Analysis and Sector Insights [45:01]
Coach Hanin takes over, providing a disclaimer about the risks of stock investments. Coach Hanin discusses the impact of Mr. Purbaya's policies and the injection of IDR 200 trillion into Himbara banks, distributed among BNI, BRI, BMRI, BBTN, and Bank Syariah Indonesia. Coach Hanin updates the audience on the banking sector's performance for the first seven months of 2025, highlighting BCA's strong net interest income (NII) and net profit growth.
Banking Sector Analysis and Potential Upsides [48:32]
Coach Hanin analyzes the potential impact of the IDR 200 trillion injection on the earnings per share (EPS) of banking sector. Coach Hanin identifies BNI as having the most potential for EPS growth in 2026, estimating around 16%. Coach Hanin explains that the IDR 200 trillion also affects the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of the banks, noting that BNI is closest to the ideal LDR range.
Valuation of Banking Stocks [51:41]
Coach Hanin discusses the valuation of banking stocks, noting that BCA's valuation is at -2 standard deviations, indicating it is undervalued. Coach Hanin compares BCA's valuation to Bank Himbara, whose share prices have strengthened. Coach Hanin notes that BRI's valuation is approaching -1 standard deviation, still considered cheap, while BNI's discount is smaller.
Economic Factors and Digital Banking [54:56]
Coach Hanin discusses the potential for interest rate cuts in Indonesia, influenced by expectations in the US market. Coach Hanin explains that Bank Indonesia may lower interest rates to boost GDP, which is driven by consumption, investment, government spending, and exports minus imports. Coach Hanin notes that digital banking will also benefit from these economic factors.
Property Sector Analysis [59:14]
Coach Hanin analyzes the property sector, comparing revenue, net profit, and marketing sales of various stocks like BSDE, CTRA, PEWON, and SMRA. Coach Hanin notes that BSDE has the largest land supply, while each property has its own competitive advantage. Coach Hanin also discusses the four factors to consider when investing: business model, management, profitability, and valuation.
Valuation and Technical Analysis of Property Stocks [1:03:24]
Coach Hanin discusses the valuation of property stocks, noting that BSDE is approaching fair value, while others like Pakon, CTRA, and SMRA are below -1 standard deviation. Coach Hanin recommends trading SSIA due to its high valuation and provides technical analysis, suggesting waiting for a breakout. Coach Hanin also mentions BBTN's positive catalyst from additional mortgage quotas.
Government Policies and Sector Benefits [1:06:46]
Coach Hanin explains how government policies, such as increased mortgage quotas and VAT exemptions, benefit the property sector and related industries like cement. Coach Hanin also discusses the importance of boosting people's purchasing power to stimulate demand.
Dividend Investing and Stock Selection [1:08:54]
Coach Hanin discusses dividend investing, highlighting stocks like ADI, ITMG, and PTBA that have consistently offered dividends. Coach Hanin notes that ITMG has the largest dividend yield and that dividend stocks offer yields greater than government bonds. Coach Hanin also provides technical analysis for these stocks, noting that they are currently in sideways patterns.
Government Initiatives and Sector Focus [1:16:18]
Coach Hanin discusses government initiatives to boost GDP, including the formation of an intermediary fund. Coach Hanin highlights Danantara's nine areas of focus, including downstream industry, food security, energy security, and digital infrastructure. Coach Hanin also mentions President Prabowo's Giant Sea Wall project.
Waste-to-Energy Sector Analysis [1:19:44]
Coach Hanin analyzes waste-to-energy issuers, including Toba, OASA, and MHKI. Coach Hanin notes Toba's revenue decline due to PLTU divestment but significant growth in the waste segment. Coach Hanin provides technical analysis for these stocks, noting the high volatility risk and recommending caution.
Green Energy Sector Analysis [1:27:49]
Coach Hanin discusses green energy issuers like PGEO, KIN, Arco, and SEMA, providing technical analysis for each. Coach Hanin notes that some of these stocks are not yet attractive for investment and recommends trading only. Coach Hanin also mentions Adaro's diversification into green energy and ESA's potential breakout.
CPO Sector Analysis [1:36:55]
Coach Hanin analyzes the CPO sector, noting that all CPO stocks are experiencing growth. Coach Hanin highlights AALI, DSNG, and SIMP as technically interesting, with retracement opportunities. Coach Hanin also mentions SIMP's exports to the United States, which are not subject to tariffs.
Upstream Oil and Gas and Digital Infrastructure [1:40:33]
Coach Hanin discusses the upstream oil and gas sector, highlighting PGN, Elsa, and PGEO as beneficiaries of Danantara's initiatives. Coach Hanin also mentions Telkom's efficiency efforts and provides technical analysis for these stocks.
Investment Opportunities and Sector Diversification [1:47:54]
Coach Hanin summarizes the investment opportunities discussed, including Himbara banks, property sector stocks, and dividend-paying stocks. Coach Hanin also mentions Java, MTEK, and gold issuers as potential trading opportunities.
Gold Sector Analysis [1:53:42]
Coach Hanin analyzes the gold sector, noting that gold is a good asset for diversification. Coach Hanin highlights Antam, Arch, BRMS, and HRTA as the most affected by gold prices. Coach Hanin provides technical analysis for these stocks, noting potential retracement positions.
Nickel and EV Downstreaming [1:58:11]
Coach Hanin discusses the downstreaming of EVs from the nickel segment, highlighting Triom Metals, Inco, and DKFT as key players. Coach Hanin provides a final summary of interesting stocks for investing and trading, emphasizing the importance of money management and risk management.