💥 Tesla to $5,000? 📈 Waymo’s Numbers Just Changed Everything! 🔥

TLDR;

This video analyzes Tesla's potential stock price based on a comparative valuation with Waymo's autonomous vehicle business. It explores various scenarios, including fleet size, revenue per car, and growth rates, to project potential price targets for Tesla by 2030. The analysis also considers Tesla's energy business and Optimus robot program, highlighting the potential for significant stock price appreciation.

• Waymo's valuation is used as a benchmark for Tesla's robotaxi business.
• Fleet size, revenue per car, and growth rates are key factors in projecting Tesla's stock price.
• Tesla's energy business and Optimus robot program add further potential value.

Introduction [0:00]

The video aims to distill various pieces of information to project Tesla's future stock price, particularly focusing on the robotaxi business and using Waymo as a comparative valuation model. The analysis promises to provide interesting price targets and incorporates a humorous meme.

Waymo Seeks $15B Raise at $100B Valuation [1:33]

Waymo is seeking to raise $15 billion at a $100 billion valuation. Waymo has a $350 million annual run rate and significant annual losses. This valuation is interesting because it provides a benchmark for valuing other companies in the autonomous vehicle space.

Key Data & Assumptions: Waymo [2:23]

Waymo has 2,500 autonomous vehicles deployed in San Francisco, LA, Phoenix, Austin, and Atlanta, generating $350 million in annual revenue from 14 million trips, which equates to $25 per trip. However, the company loses an estimated $3 billion per year, or $214 per trip, due to high operational and R&D costs.

What if Tesla Robotaxi Valued like Waymo? [3:54]

The video explores the potential valuation of Tesla if its robotaxi business is valued similarly to Waymo. It is estimated that Tesla could have 50,000 robotaxis in 12-18 months. Tesla's cars have lower production costs compared to Waymo, with the Model Y costing around $30,000 and the Cyber Cab costing about $15,000.

Financial Metrics Comparison: Fleet Size & Revenue [4:58]

Waymo has a fleet size of 2,500 vehicles, while Tesla could potentially reach 50,000 vehicles quickly, which is 20 times the size of Waymo's fleet. Tesla will offer a better service at a lower price. Tesla will make approximately $100,000 per vehicle due to efficient operations and high demand.

Profitability Comparison [5:56]

Waymo loses over $200 per ride, while the Cyber Cab will be able to generate significant profit. The removal of the safety monitor from the passenger seat in Austin, Texas, will further increase profitability.

Key Insights Tesla vs Waymo [6:24]

Tesla is expected to reach 50,000 taxis. Waymo is unlikely to succeed. Waymo's valuation provides insights into Tesla's potential. Analyst projections for the coming years and up to 2035 are incorporated to narrow down potential price targets using Monte Carlo simulations.

Following the WAYMO Valuation - $TSLA Price [7:10]

If Tesla reaches 50,000 cars, with a revenue of $140,000 per car and a revenue multiple of 300x, and a 50% margin, the impact on Tesla's price would be an increase of $631, bringing the implied price to $1,117.

IA Valuation 20K Cars $100K - $TSLA Price [8:52]

With 20,000 cars and $100,000 revenue per car, using the same revenue multiple of 300x and a 50% margin, the stock price would increase by $180, reaching $666.

IA Valuation 100K Cars $100K - $TSLA Price [9:55]

If Tesla has 100,000 cars, it would add $900 to the price, bringing the total Tesla price to $1,387.

Moron Stanley Tesla Robotaxi Projections [10:08]

Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla will have 1,000 robotaxis in 2026 and up to 1 million vehicles by 2035.

Moron Stanley 2026 - $TSLA Price [10:54]

According to Morgan Stanley's projections, 1,000 cars by 2026 would add $9 to the stock price, bringing it to $495.

Moron Stanley 2035 1M Cars - $TSLA Price [11:18]

Morgan Stanley's projection of 1 million cars by 2035 would increase the share price by $12,625, resulting in a total price of $13,111. The market cap would increase by $42 trillion, with $70 billion in annual profit.

IA 2030 2M Cars - $TSLA Price [11:58]

By 2030, with 2 million robotaxis, the share price would increase by $25,175, reaching $25,661, adding $83 trillion to the market cap.

IA Monte Carlo Simulation out to 2030 - 40% CAGR [12:55]

Using Monte Carlo simulations with a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) out to 2030, the bare case stock price would be $2,533, the median case would be $3,725, and the bull case would be $5,400.

IA Monte Carlo Simulation out to 2030 - 65% CAGR [13:50]

With a 65% CAGR, the median case would be $8,096 by 2030.

IA Monte Carlo Simulation out to 2030 - 100% CAGR [14:40]

Assuming a 100% CAGR, the median case would be $20,556, the bare case would be $15,000, and the bull case would be $27,000.

Cybercab Coming off the Line Every 10 seconds [15:02]

Tesla's new unboxed process allows them to produce a Cybercab every 10 seconds starting in Austin, Texas, at a cost of $15,000 per car.

Risks and Opportunities [15:42]

Risks include potential reputational damage, regulatory shutdowns, and public backlash. Competition from companies like Waymo and Zoox is also a factor, but these companies may face scalability challenges. Opportunities include vertical integration, FSD software deployment on millions of cars, and a large projected fleet.

Tesla Energy [16:46]

Tesla Energy is growing at 67% per year with 32% margins, generating $1 billion in profit per quarter. The energy mega pack business alone is worth a trillion dollars.

Oh and Optimus - this is just to Train [17:12]

Tesla is building a 200-megawatt data center at Giga Texas to train Optimus robots. They will use a thousand robots in their own factories and then sell them to customers.

Elon on Waymo! [17:59]

Elon Musk believes that Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla and that LiDAR is a fool's errand.

Elon on LiDAR [18:19]

Elon Musk stated in 2019 that anyone relying on LiDAR is doomed.

Tesla Autonomy at Scale and Shorts and 99% Chance or Driverless Robotaxi by Year End [18:47]

If short sellers do not exit their positions before Tesla achieves autonomy at scale, they will be "obliterated". Autonomy at scale applies not only to robotaxis but also to the uptake of FSD. There is a 99% chance of driverless robotaxis by the end of the year.

Summary of Models [19:27]

The video summarizes the various price prediction models, including the Waymo valuation model, which projects a price target of $1,117 if Tesla reaches 50,000 robotaxis. The IA valuation model projects $666 with 20,000 cars and $1,387 with 100,000 cars. Morgan Stanley's projections for 2026 and 2035 result in price targets of $495 and $13,111, respectively. The IA valuation model for 2030 projects a price of $25,661 with 2 million cars. Monte Carlo simulations project prices ranging from $3,700 to $20,000, depending on fleet size growth rates.