Brief Summary
This video analyses the Bitcoin PI cycle top indicator, a tool that uses moving averages to predict bull market peaks. It explores the current state of the indicator, the factors that could influence its future movements, and potential timelines for the next bull market peak based on different scenarios.
- The PI cycle top indicator uses the crossover of the 111-day moving average and the 350-day moving average multiplied by two to predict bull market peaks.
- The current consolidation phase is causing the PI cycle moving average to curl upwards.
- Potential breakout scenarios and their impact on the timing of the bull market peak are examined, considering historical having cycles and price movements.
Introduction to the PI Cycle Top Indicator
The PI cycle top indicator is a highly accurate tool that uses the crossover of two moving averages to predict Bitcoin bull market peaks within a five-day timeframe. Specifically, it involves the 111-day moving average crossing over the 350-day moving average multiplied by two. In 2021, this indicator accurately predicted a bull market top, making it a valuable tool for analysis. Currently, there is no projected crossover, prompting an examination of the conditions necessary for such a crossover to occur and whether the parallel movement of these averages suggests a delayed bull market peak.
Factors Influencing the PI Cycle Moving Average
The pullback and subsequent price discovery correction led to an inflection point in the PI cycle moving average, causing it to level out due to the uptrend. Despite price consolidation between $100,000 and $110,000, the PI cycle moving average has been consistently curling upwards. This upward movement is notable because it persists even without significant new price highs. If Bitcoin were to break out to new highs, the moving average would curl up even more sharply. Continued consolidation could bring the price closer to the PI cycle moving average support, potentially acting as a buying opportunity, especially with downside deviations.
Potential Scenarios and Ascending Triangle Formation
If consolidation continues for an extended period, the PI cycle moving average could act as a strong support, similar to a previous retest that preceded a 20% move. This scenario could lead to the formation of an ascending triangle, with the trend line acting as support and a resistance level above. The 20% move upwards caused the moving average to curl up by 18° in about a month and a half, and this upward trend is likely to continue as long as prices remain high. These high prices are influencing the moving average, which averages out the past 111 days, including lower prices from the $70,000 range.
Projecting Future Bull Market Peaks
Currently, there is a 10° angle difference in the moving average. Propagating this angle suggests a potential bull market peak around February 2026, aligning with theories of cycle extension. A 15% move to $125,000 could lift the angle by an additional 10°, significantly altering the timing of the bull market peak. If a mid-October 2025 peak is anticipated, a substantial 52° shift would be needed, potentially requiring a 21% price increase. A mid-September 2025 peak might necessitate an even stronger move to $142,000 to achieve the required curl in the moving average.
Strategies to Influence the PI Cycle Indicator
To accelerate the PI cycle, it's crucial to avoid lower prices and corrective periods. While the PI cycle indicator may not always perfectly predict the bull market peak, the moving averages are likely to converge closely. Continued price discovery without significant resistance is necessary to further lift the moving average. A November 2025 peak would require a 47° change, or an additional 20° from the current position. Strong price movements are essential to cause a significant curl upwards.
Final Bull Market Parabola and Price Discovery
The final stages of a Bitcoin bull market tend to be parabolic. Breaking the $111,000 resistance could unlock the next phase of price discovery, prompting the necessary curl in the moving average. This movement would bring the crossover and the bull market peak closer. Whether a mid-September peak is feasible depends on the progression of market phases. Bitcoin needs to quickly complete the next price discovery uptrend and subsequent correction to align with traditional having cycles, which will significantly impact the moving averages.
