TLDR;
This discussion with historians Steven Kotkin and Orville Schell explores the motivations and worldviews of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, comparing them to historical figures like Mao and Stalin. The conversation covers the initial Western perceptions of these leaders, their backgrounds, and the impact of historical events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Cultural Revolution on their leadership. It also addresses the ideological underpinnings of their regimes, their shared sense of victimization, and the geopolitical strategies they employ to challenge the current world order.
- Early Western perceptions of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin were largely inaccurate, viewing them as moderate and Western-oriented.
- Both leaders share a sense of being marginalized by the West, rooted in Leninist anti-imperialism and a desire to restore their nations' greatness.
- The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Cultural Revolution significantly shaped their views on political reform and the importance of maintaining a strong, centralized state.
Introduction [0:00]
Dan Curts Failen introduces a discussion with historians Steven Kotkin and Orville Shell about the driving forces behind Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, and how they compare to leaders like Mao and Stalin. The conversation aims to understand their worldviews and motivations, which are crucial for foreign policy and international affairs.
Early Western Perceptions of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin [2:13]
The initial Western view of Xi Jinping was based on the assumption that his father's persecution during the Cultural Revolution would make him a reformer. However, this proved incorrect. Similarly, early assessments of Putin saw him as a moderate and a modernizer. These perceptions failed to account for the complex interplay of history, ideology, and personal psychology that drives these leaders.
Xi Jinping's Background and the Cultural Revolution [4:13]
Xi Jinping's father, Xi Zhongxun, faced persecution during the Cultural Revolution, which deeply affected Xi's upbringing. Despite this, Xi applied multiple times to become a Little Red Pioneer, indicating a desire to be part of the revolution. This complicated parental dynamic and the experience of being rejected due to his family's "black category" likely influenced his later views and actions.
Putin's Rise and the Collapse of the Soviet Union [6:57]
Putin's rise to power was facilitated by his promise to protect Boris Yeltsin and his family, as well as to stabilize the Russian state following the Soviet collapse. Putin's personal experience of the Soviet Union's demise was formative. He witnessed the end of the Soviet forward position in Eastern Europe firsthand while stationed in Germany. This experience contributed to his determination to resurrect the Russian state and restore its great power status.
The Influence of the Soviet Collapse on Xi Jinping [9:20]
Xi Jinping's understanding of the Soviet collapse is central to his leadership. He views Gorbachev's reforms as a failure and is determined to avoid a similar outcome in China. The party school, which Xi ran before assuming his leadership role, focused on the lessons of the Soviet collapse and the dangers of Western decadence. This historical analysis informs his commitment to maintaining the Communist Party's monopoly on power and resisting political liberalization.
Leninism, Imperialism, and the Culture of Victimization [22:58]
Xi Jinping and Putin share a Leninist perspective on imperialism, viewing the developed world as exploitative and colonialist. This perspective fosters a culture of victimization, where both leaders feel marginalized and disrespected by the West. They desire respect but struggle to act in a way that garners it, creating a cycle of offense and resentment.
The Selective Use of History and Anti-Western Sentiment [25:39]
Both China and Russia selectively use history to support their narratives. While they highlight Western imperialism and its negative impacts, they often ignore or downplay the domestic consequences of their own communist regimes. This selective view of history reinforces their anti-Western stance and justifies their actions in challenging the current world order.
Xi Jinping's View of Mao and the Communist Party [29:04]
Despite his family's suffering during the Maoist revolution, Xi Jinping lionizes Mao, viewing the Chinese Communist Party as China's only saving grace. He equates losing the party with chaos and anarchy, similar to the Soviet collapse. This belief reinforces his commitment to maintaining one-party rule and suppressing any political alternatives.
Geopolitical Strategies and the Challenge to US Power [33:34]
China and Russia are fighting a losing game against the upstart power of the US and its allies. They are trying to reclaim their self-assigned place as ancient, legitimate, and impressive civilizations. China's geopolitical strategy involves pushing back against American power, loosening the American alliance system, and expanding its influence in the South China Sea.
The Question of Why: China's Alienation of Other Nations [39:22]
The question is raised why China is alienating other nations and undermining its own interests despite having a good thing going. The response suggests that it stems from a fundamental understanding that the existence and power of open societies and Western values pose an existential threat to their regimes. This drives them to act in ways that appear counterproductive but are rooted in a deep-seated fear of Western influence.
The Terms of Sharing the World and the Limits of Diplomacy [54:10]
The discussion shifts to the terms under which the world will be shared with China and Russia. It is argued that the focus should be on defining the terms of engagement and creating leverage to influence their behavior. The importance of diplomacy is emphasized, but it should be used to create leverage and make deals that support US interests, rather than simply engaging in dialogue for its own sake.
Xi Jinping and the War in Ukraine [57:14]
The potential for Xi Jinping to play a constructive role in ending the war in Ukraine is examined. While China has made a show of sending peace envoys, there is skepticism about its earnestness and ability to constrain Putin. The leverage China has due to its supply of semiconductors to Russia is discussed, as well as the potential benefits and drawbacks of Xi abandoning Putin.
The Future of US-China Relations and the Potential for a Sino-Russian Alliance [1:04:38]
The potential for a full Sino-Russian alliance is considered, with the recognition that both countries may only have each other if the world is decoupling. The psychology of the leaders is seen as a significant factor, with their thin skin and allergy to humiliation potentially driving their actions. The absence of potential reciprocation on the US side is identified as a fundamental problem in improving relations.
The Post-Leadership Era in Russia and China [1:13:56]
The discussion concludes by considering what happens after Putin and Xi Jinping are no longer in power. For Russia, the possibilities range from becoming like France to descending into chaos or becoming a Chinese puppet regime. For China, there is potential for a more open and cosmopolitan society, but it depends on future leadership and their willingness to allow different forces to express themselves.
