Brief Summary
This video discusses the recent rise in the Egyptian dollar price and its potential causes, including the Central Bank of Egypt's upcoming interest rate decision and the Ramses Central incident. It analyzes the relationship between these events and the dollar's value, considering the influence of the International Monetary Fund and global economic factors. The video concludes with a prediction that the dollar's value will continue to increase, potentially reaching 51 pounds by the end of the year.
- The dollar has risen for the second consecutive session, reaching 49.76 piasters.
- The Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged.
- The dollar is expected to continue to increase, potentially reaching 51 pounds.
Dollar Price Movements and Central Bank Decision
The video starts by addressing the recent movements in the dollar price in Egypt, coinciding with the Central Bank of Egypt's upcoming decision on interest rates. It questions whether the rise in the dollar price is a coincidence or indicative of future trends, and whether the Ramses Central incident is related. The presenter aims to uncover hidden connections and analyze economic developments to determine the most likely scenario for the Central Bank's meeting and whether the dollar will reach new record levels.
Recent Dollar Price Increase
The dollar has risen for the second consecutive session, closing at a new high of 49.76 piasters, with an increase of fifteen to seventeen piasters today and 20 piasters from last week's trading. While one piaster may seem insignificant, this increase could be related to certain economic conditions and the upcoming interest rate decision. The presenter refers to previous videos discussing potential scenarios considered by the Central Bank, with the most likely being to keep the interest rate unchanged.
Interest Rates and Flexible Pricing Policy
Linking the dollar price to the interest rate decision suggests that an increase in interest rates would lead to a rise in the dollar price. However, the presenter argues that the rise in the dollar price is part of the flexible pricing policy followed by the Central Bank of Egypt, reflecting supply and demand forces. Therefore, there is no direct connection between today's rise in the dollar and the Monetary Policy Committee's decision to raise interest rates.
Ramses Central Incident and Economic Impact
The Ramses Central incident, involving a fire that damaged the building, may have some connection to the dollar price. The presenter explains that the increase in the dollar price is due to Egypt's obligations and pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF is satisfied with discussing the fifth installment and including it in the sixth installment, which will be next fall. The Ramses Central incident could affect the dollar price due to communication problems, bank issues, and potential concerns among investors and companies.
Central Bank Expectations and Interest Rate Decision
The Central Bank of Egypt is expected to keep interest rates stable, as there is no immediate pressure to raise them. Raising interest rates would affect real estate investment, which businessmen oppose, but would benefit hot capital. The presenter notes that the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, further supporting the idea that the Monetary Policy Committee will not raise interest rates.
Future of the Dollar Price
The presenter concludes by stating that the dollar is on its way to increase, with expectations of reaching 51 pounds in the near future. The presenter anticipates that the dollar will jump to its highest level, around 50 to 51 pounds, by the end of 2025.
