Brief Summary
Ellen May discusses recent market trends, including the impact of layoffs on Indonesia's GDP, and highlights opportunities in the stock market, particularly in the minerals and renewable energy sectors. She also touches on specific stocks like MDKA, MBMA, INCO, and TINS, providing technical analysis and insights. Additionally, she addresses the potential for Asia to attract foreign investment and the positive effects of Danantara on certain sectors. The session includes a comparison of metal stocks, a review of Fore Kopi's financial performance, and a discussion on dividend yields for Unilever, PGEO, and Medco.
- Impact of layoffs on Indonesia's GDP is minimal due to strong household consumption.
- Opportunities in minerals and renewable energy sectors driven by Danantara.
- Technical analysis and insights on stocks like MDKA, MBMA, INCO, TINS, and Harum Energy.
Webinar Announcement and Market Overview
Ellen May announces a free webinar, MTD Start, on June 14, 2025, at 10 AM, offering a promo e-code for joining Mtrade for one year. She starts the live session by discussing the slightly positive movement of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) and the slow performance of big-cap stocks like BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, and BBNI. She also addresses the widespread layoffs in digital platforms due to tightened monetary and fiscal policies in the US following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Impact of Layoffs on GDP and Market Opportunities
Ellen explains why Indonesia's GDP has not significantly declined despite numerous layoffs. The GDP calculation includes household consumption, investment, government spending, and the difference between exports and imports. Currently, Indonesia's imports are increasing while exports are decreasing, potentially due to the rerouting of goods from China to avoid tariffs. Despite government spending decreasing, strong household consumption, accounting for approximately 57.06% of the GDP, is keeping the economy afloat. She notes that the stock market has risen 20% since April 8, even with a slowing manufacturing sector, indicating a divergence between the stock market and the real economy.
Danantara and Sector Priorities
Ellen discusses how the stock market is still up 22% despite the economic slowdown, with many stocks rising more than 30% since April 8. She mentions that MTE has advised caution on stocks that have already risen significantly, suggesting a focus on undervalued commodity and metal stocks, as well as renewable energy stocks. Mtrade has profited from PGEO, PESP, and MBMA. She highlights that a new 50% tariff on steel is effective, excluding the UK due to ongoing trade negotiations with the US. Asia is becoming a primary destination for capital leaving the US due to concerns over Trump's policies and uncertainties in Europe. Danantara is a key sentiment driving investment in the minerals sector, with nickel being a priority.
Stock Analysis: MDKA, MBMA, and INCO
Ellen analyzes several stocks, starting with MDKA, noting its breakout from a consolidation phase at 2120, with a potential target of 2420. Mtrade members have already seen gains of 26-28% on MDKA. She then discusses MBMA, which is collaborating with Ceciang Hayu Cobalt on battery ecosystem projects, including partnerships with PT IBC, Pertamina, PLN, Wo, and CATL. Mtrade members have profited from MBMA, with recent gains of 24%. Ellen emphasizes the importance of independent analysis and encourages viewers to share their testimonials. She also touches on INCO, which has risen 108% since April 9, despite previous bearish sentiment.
Stock Analysis: TINS and Harum Energy
Ellen reviews TINS (Timah), noting that Mind ID is entrusting its management to Danantara to improve governance and efficiency. Despite a decrease in tin production and average selling prices, TINS's technical outlook suggests potential sideways movement. She also discusses Harum Energy, highlighting its recent breakout with high transaction volume, making it an attractive option compared to the already high-performing INCO and Antam. Ellen emphasizes the importance of understanding the reasons behind investment decisions and promotes Mtrade's educational services, including e-courses and webinars.
Fundamental Comparison and Fore Kopi Review
Ellen compares the fundamental valuations of metal stocks, including Antam, Harum, Inco, MDKA, and MBMA, noting that Antam is overvalued while Harum and Inco are still discounted. She highlights the significant year-on-year and quarterly net profit increases for Harum and Inco. Ellen then reviews Fore Kopi Indonesia, noting a substantial increase in revenue and net profit, driven by growth in all sales segments. However, she expresses skepticism about the reported dividend yield of 424% and prefers to focus on the stock's technical aspects.
Dividend Yields and Market Outlook
Ellen shares dividend information for Unilever, PGEO, and Medco, noting that Unilever has the highest total dividend payout but a lower yield compared to its stock price. She advises caution around ex-dividend dates, as traders may exit their positions. Ellen also briefly discusses the technical outlook for Medco and Unilever, suggesting caution for Unilever due to a double top formation. She reiterates that her role is to explain mineral stocks and the reasons behind the stock market's rise despite economic slowdown, attributing it to forward-looking principles and attractive valuations.
Toba Analysis and Final Thoughts
Ellen analyzes Toba, noting its breakout from a significant resistance level at 480 with strong volume, suggesting further potential upside. She mentions that Mtrade took profits on PESP and is monitoring other stocks like Bris and AMMN. Ellen emphasizes the value of Mtrade's services, including stock screeners, trading ideas, e-courses, and webinars. She also touches on the potential impact of COVID-19 news in Asia, noting that it has not yet had a significant effect. Finally, she promotes Mtrade Start and encourages viewers to DM her for more information, also mentioning internship opportunities at her company.
