TLDR;
This YouTube video provides an Elliot Wave analysis for the NASDAQ 100 as of March 19th. It discusses market movements, potential wave formations, and key levels to watch, especially in relation to options expiration. The speaker also touches on market sentiment and trading strategies.
- Market volatility and potential for further downside movement.
- Importance of gamma levels and options expiration in understanding market behavior.
- Key levels to watch for potential support and resistance.
Market Overview and Today's Trading Activity [0:18]
The market experienced volatility, reaching a low early in the trading day and then bouncing around. The speaker believes that today's market activity was largely influenced by preparations for tomorrow's options expiration, which involves significant dollar amounts. Institutions and dealers are adjusting positions, closing them, or trading out in preparation for this expiration. The total nominal value of the expiration is substantial, indicating a significant amount of money in the market and ongoing trading activity.
Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment [2:11]
The speaker acknowledges that many traders have opinions and positions but are also actively trading the moves in the market. He encourages traders to be kind to each other, recognizing that differing opinions exist. The goal is for everyone to make money through their trading, regardless of their positions.
NASDAQ Analysis and Wave Formations [3:35]
The speaker believes the NASDAQ is either done with its current move or will experience a minute fourth wave. He references a daily chart pattern that suggests a conclusion is near, particularly given the market's trading range over the past few years. The speaker is considering the possibility of a shift in the wave structure, potentially finding a low for the minute fourth wave and then moving higher in a minute fifth wave. This movement is expected to align with similar patterns in the S&P 500.
Potential Minute Fourth Wave Scenarios [5:18]
The speaker discusses the potential for a minute fourth wave, considering different windows for its completion. He notes that the current structure is becoming congested, with a third wave down in terms of the C-wave. The speaker is looking for the C-wave to potentially reach a specific level to finish the third wave. He also presents an alternative scenario where the market is already done with the move.
Key Levels and Market Dynamics [7:58]
The speaker identifies 24,000 as a key level for the NDX, noting it as a long-standing support level. A break below this level could trigger further selling. He attributes recent market movements to volatility and negative gamma, with certain levels triggering monetization. Despite the volatility, the VIX ended down, and the speaker believes the moves were driven by a risk-on trade, with participants re-establishing positions and selling the VIX.
Options Expiration and Market Preparation [9:57]
The speaker believes that the market's nose dives and rallies were due to position adjustments for the upcoming expiration. He clarifies that today was not an expiration day for the NDX or ENQ, but it was preparation for tomorrow's significant expiration.
Short-Term Outlook and Targets [10:40]
The speaker anticipates one more move lower, potentially reaching 24,000 in the NDX, which he believes is a put wall. He suggests that tomorrow could be the day for this move. He advises keeping an eye on crude oil prices. The speaker reiterates that the market is either in a fourth wave or coming down to finish a third wave before moving to a fourth and fifth wave.
Wave Analysis and Potential Scenarios [12:33]
The speaker identifies potential targets for wave movements, including 24,292 and 24,000 in the futures market. He believes the market may test 24,000. The speaker outlines a scenario involving a series of ABC moves to complete the C-wave, with potential markers for each wave.
Longer-Term Perspective and Minute Fifth Wave [16:56]
The speaker remains focused on the minute fourth wave and cautions against getting too excited about a potential minute fifth wave, as it could be short-lived. He suggests it could be connected to an expiration, possibly the quarterly expiration. The speaker believes this could be a setup, with the market potentially moving back up to new highs before another significant decline.
Cash Market vs. Futures Market [17:54]
The speaker notes differences between the cash market and the futures market, particularly in wave counts. He suggests that the NASDAQ may be following the cash market, coming down in a minute wave one like the S&P 500. This would be followed by a potentially intense rally in a minute wave two.
Final Thoughts and Trading Strategy [19:20]
The speaker believes there is still additional downside potential, with limited upside. He advises monitoring crude oil and overall market movements. He discusses alternative wave counts and the importance of understanding gamma levels, volatility triggers, and key markers. The speaker emphasizes that options are growing in volume and remain strong, providing plenty of trading opportunities.
Tomorrow's Outlook and Data [22:02]
The speaker notes that tomorrow will be focused on trading, with no major economic data releases. He mentions that news may come from other sources. The next update will be tomorrow morning, with a review of adjusted gamma levels.
