TLDR;
This YouTube video by Marcin Tuszkiewicz provides a concise analytical overview of the market as of April 6th, 2024, covering global indices, commodities, and currencies. It highlights the positive market sentiment heading into the long weekend, driven by strong employment data and PMI readings, while also noting potential risks and key levels to watch. The analysis includes a discussion of Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell, and European indices, as well as Bitcoin, Ethereum, WIG20, and the Polish złoty.
- Positive market sentiment driven by strong employment data and PMI readings.
- Key levels for Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell, and European indices.
- Analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum, WIG20, and the Polish złoty.
Wstęp [0:00]
Marcin Tuszkiewicz welcomes viewers to the weekend analytical meeting, emphasizing its importance for regular attendees. He notes the positive market sentiment as the long weekend begins, with strong gains in stock indices and the Polish market reaching near-peak levels, despite energy prices. He mentions the previous week's divergence where Nasdaq fell due to Google and Antropic, while other indices remained relatively strong.
Przegląd makro [1:00]
The most important data released was the new job creation in the United States, with the NFP reporting 178,000 new jobs. However, there was a downward revision of the previous month's figures from 92,000 to -133,000. The unemployment rate remains around 4.3%. Positive PMI readings from the US economy and retail sales also supported the indices, although retail sales data could be pro-inflationary. Most exchanges are closed on Monday, but the US market will be open. Upcoming data includes the ISM service PMI, durable goods orders, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision, Fed minutes, and the PCE index, which is the Fed's key inflation indicator.
Nasdaq i pozostałe indeksy giełdowe [3:45]
The Nasdaq experienced a strong rebound, but remains below the key resistance zone of 24,200-24,000 points. A trend change is visible on the 4-hour chart, with a rally followed by a pullback. The market reacted positively to the recent low around 23,500, which is a good sign. Overcoming the 24,200-300 point range would be a positive signal, potentially leading to a move towards 25,800 points. Support remains at 22,000 points. The S&P 500 shows a similar pattern, reacting to the same level and failing to break the local high. The Dow Jones is in a consolidation phase, with resistance at 46,800 and support at 45,100. A breakout from this consolidation would indicate the next direction.
Bitcoin i Ethereum [12:14]
Bitcoin and Ethereum have not mirrored the ebullient growth seen in indices, suggesting a lack of complete risk-on sentiment. This muted reaction indicates that while technical signals may be present and tradable, a broader positive sentiment is still lacking. Developments over the weekend could shift this dynamic, but current sentiment leans negative, influenced by ongoing events in the Middle East.
WIG20, mWIG40, sWIG80 [14:40]
The WIG20 has shown surprisingly strong performance, quickly returning to growth, driven by companies like Tauron, PGE, and KGHM, despite declines in Dino, CCC, and Allegro. The index attacked the 3400 level. The mWIG40 is also performing well, though not as strongly, targeting 8700 points after breaking the 8350 barrier, with technicals suggesting further growth. The sWIG80 is the weakest, failing to close positively on Friday, but still showing a decent rebound from 28000. The key level to watch for sWIG80 is 30350-30400; failure to overcome this level while WIG20 makes new highs could signal a warning.
Polski złoty [18:14]
The Polish złoty has not strengthened significantly, with USD/PLN remaining around 3.70. As long as the rate stays above 3.60, the base scenario targets 3.84 or 3.90. EUR/PLN is in a consolidation phase before a potential breakout. CHF/PLN has declined due to Swiss franc weakness, reaching a support level of 4.60-4.64. A rise in CHF/PLN from this level could indicate broader złoty weakness. The disconnect between the strong performance of the Polish stock market and the złoty's stability is a potential warning sign.
Srebro, złoto, ropa i gaz [20:00]
Silver experienced sharp declines, but as long as it remains above 69, the base scenario is bullish, targeting 74. A drop below 69.60 would open the path to lower levels around 60 or even 52 dollars. Gold remains in an uptrend as long as it stays above 4500 points, with a target of 5000 dollars. US natural gas prices are unaffected by Middle East tensions, remaining around 280. European gas prices have seen some normalization after initial spikes. Brent crude oil is around 110 dollars per barrel, indicating continued high oil prices.
Towary rolne [22:50]
Corn has corrected downwards. The agricultural commodities market is behaving unusually, not reacting to fertilizer market disruptions. Cotton prices have risen following crude oil, with a target of 75 dollars and a stop loss below 67. Coffee retested 294 cents per bushel; a breakout above 301 would signal further gains. Sugar is testing upper limits but falling back. Wheat remains in an uptrend above 566, but faces resistance at 621. Soybeans ended the week below resistance at 1180, targeting 1118. Cocoa prices broke above 3200, maintaining a bullish signal above 3075, with a target of 4000 dollars.
Waluty, EURUSD [25:30]
There have been no interventions in the USD/JPY pair, which is trading around 160. The 160.22 level remains a long-term target. The Australian dollar is correcting downwards due to energy issues, with a potential buying opportunity around 67. The pound sterling has fallen to 1.30 and 1.50, with a bearish outlook. EUR/USD failed to break above the neckline, remaining in a downtrend with key support levels at 1.1480 and 1.1460. A break below these levels could lead to a move towards 1.12. EUR/CHF has rebounded after the Swiss National Bank's communication, reaching a key resistance level.
Życzenia świąteczne [27:55]
Marcin Tuszkiewicz concludes with holiday wishes, promising an update if significant market events occur and inviting viewers to the Tuesday session summary. He encourages viewers to focus on family and important things during the holiday season.
