Brief Summary
This YouTube video provides an analysis of the recent financial market volatility, discussing potential future trends in interest rates, the stock market, Bitcoin, and precious metals. It emphasizes the importance of understanding market signals and making informed investment decisions.
- Recent market volatility may signal the start of a larger correction.
- Interest rate cuts are not always positive and depend on the economic context.
- Bitcoin's future performance is closely tied to global liquidity and key support levels.
- Gold and silver present buying opportunities, with potential for further gains.
INTRO/Einleitung
The video starts by addressing the recent volatility in the financial markets, questioning whether the bull market is over and if a significant correction or crash is imminent. The speaker notes that August is historically a volatile month and points out the recent volatility spike since April. The speaker mentions that the week's events began with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where Jerome Powell's hesitant stance on interest rate cuts led to market fluctuations, followed by mega earnings from tech companies like Microsoft and Meta, which initially pushed prices up but were ultimately unsustainable. The speaker also touches on Trump's comments on labor market data and new tariffs for Switzerland, contributing to market uncertainty.
Zinsen
The discussion focuses on interest rates, highlighting that markets are pricing in a 90% chance of an interest rate cut in September. The speaker emphasizes that interest rate cuts are not inherently positive and are only beneficial if not driven by weak economic data. The speaker references historical examples, such as 2000, 2007-2008, and 2019, where interest rate cuts preceded recessions and stock market declines. The speaker suggests that the Federal Reserve often cuts rates too late, and the positive effects of these cuts take 6 to 24 months to materialize. The speaker also points out that the market sentiment has shifted from extreme greed to neutral, which could be a positive sign for future buying opportunities.
VIX Seasonality
The speaker reviews the VIX seasonality, recalling a previous discussion about August typically being a positive month for volatility. The speaker notes the recent best day of volatility since April and anticipates this cycle continuing into the coming week. Historically, August and September are the weakest months for the stock market. The speaker suggests that the current correction might not be as deep, potentially turning upwards in the second half of August, but this needs to be assessed weekly.
US-Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index has been in a downward trend since Trump's inauguration, similar to his first term in 2016. A recent countermovement was observed, but interest rate cut expectations for September have caused a setback. This dollar weakness has led to a spike in gold prices. The speaker hopes for a continued dollar rally into August before another rollover, which would be bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold. The speaker suggests monitoring the dollar's trend next week to determine if it continues downward.
Aktienmärkte / Magnificent 7 und mehr
The S&P 500 has rallied 30% since mid-April, prompting the question of how long the current break will last. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the speaker suggests that the market is in its fifth wave since the October 2022 lows. The speaker believes there will be at least one more rally this year before a potentially large correction. The speaker identifies two potential support zones for the S&P 500 and anticipates a short-term correction followed by a bounce and another sell-off before a rise. The speaker doesn't anticipate a major bear market, expecting a 5-7% correction. The speaker also notes that speculative stocks are performing differently, indicating a bullish pullback.
The speaker then reviews the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, assessing their potential for pullbacks and opportunities:
- Amazon: Neutral, not showing relative strength.
- Apple: Least interesting, potentially facing a larger correction.
- Google (Alphabet): Structure is better than Amazon, but also not showing new highs.
- Meta: Strong performer, but very extended, suitable only for short-term trading.
- Microsoft: Picture-book chart, with levels around 450-460 looking interesting for a buy.
- Nvidia: Similar to Microsoft, testing breakout area around 150-160.
- Tesla: Neutral, with potential excitement if it takes out highs or drops below $270.
The speaker identifies Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta as the strongest performers, with Google next. Amazon is neutral, while Apple and Tesla are in a wait-and-see position.
The speaker also discusses Novo Nordisk, a Danish stock that has seen significant growth since 1988. Despite a recent 6-7% drop, the speaker is reserved due to increasing competition and patent uncertainties. The speaker notes a capitulation candle and significant volume, suggesting a potential buying opportunity for those convinced about the stock. However, the speaker remains defensive, fearing a continued correction towards $30.
US-Zölle für die Schweiz
The speaker addresses Trump's announcement of 39% tariffs for Switzerland, impacting watchmaking, chocolate, and other exports to the USA. This puts pressure on companies like Swatch Group, which is already in a long-term downtrend. The speaker also notes that Nestle is experiencing a similar downtrend, having fallen below its 200-week average. The speaker advises caution with knife-catching and suggests waiting for consolidation before considering buying.
Bitcoin / MicroStrategy und mehr
Bitcoin has been under pressure, failing to break out of its consolidation. The speaker addresses fears of a cycle top and emphasizes the importance of holding above 108,000 to 112,000. Falling below this range could trigger a Wyckoff distribution pattern, potentially leading to a drop to the 70,000-90,000 range. The speaker highlights recent bullish news that has not positively impacted the price, which is typically a top signal. The speaker references Michael Saylor's Forbes cover as a past example of a top indicator.
The speaker emphasizes that falling back into the range would not be the end of Bitcoin but would likely delay new all-time highs until 2026. The speaker then presents a chart comparing Bitcoin to global liquidity, noting that global liquidity has been a reliable guide for Bitcoin's movements. The chart suggests that Bitcoin could continue its rally into August and peak in mid-to-late September.
The speaker notes that MicroStrategy, which has historically led Bitcoin's moves, has not made new highs and looks battered. The speaker suggests that MicroStrategy may not reach all-time highs in this cycle due to increased competition and market distrust. The speaker draws parallels to 2021, when MicroStrategy topped out before Bitcoin, warning that this could be a leading indicator of a Bitcoin top.
Edelmetalle
The speaker discusses precious metals, noting that gold saw a strong move upwards on Friday due to dollar weakness and expectations of interest rate cuts. The speaker hopes for more dollar strength in the coming weeks to allow for consolidation before a rally towards $4,000 in Q4. The speaker believes it is unlikely that both Bitcoin and gold will rally significantly together, as they typically alternate. The speaker remains bullish on gold, viewing pullbacks as buying opportunities.
The speaker recommends Flex Gold from Switzerland for buying gold and other precious metals, highlighting exclusive special conditions for Friedrich Report subscribers.
Silver has also seen volatility, reaching a target zone before falling again. The speaker suggests two options: either the bottom has already been reached, or a bounce followed by another drop will occur before a Q4 rally. The speaker considers prices below $34 as purchase prices for physical silver and does not plan to sell until above $100.
Fazit
In summary, the speaker expects only interim corrections and views pullbacks in both Bitcoin and stocks as buying opportunities. The speaker advises focusing on stocks that have shown relative strength since the April lows and ignoring those that have lagged. The speaker hopes for longer consolidation in gold and silver, which would create further buying opportunities. The speaker remains bullish overall, viewing the current correction as healthy and necessary for resetting sentiment indicators. The speaker believes further highs are possible this year, which should be used to take profits and build larger cash positions.
