TLDR;
This article by Gwynne Dyer discusses the potential future of the United States, presenting several scenarios with associated probabilities. It explores the possibility of a civil war, authoritarian shift, and economic decline, drawing parallels with historical events and other countries' experiences.
- The article assesses the likelihood of a civil war in the U.S., drawing parallels with the Soviet Union's collapse.
- It considers the possibility of the U.S. transforming into an authoritarian state.
- The author also touches on the potential for economic decline, comparing it to Argentina's past century.
[Introduction: Predicting the Future of the U.S.]
The author introduces the difficulty of making predictions, especially about the future, but proceeds to offer some probabilities regarding the future of the United States over the next three years. The use of numbers is acknowledged as a way to lend a misleadingly precise air to these predictions.
[Assessing the Possibility of a Civil War]
The author dismisses events with zero probability and suggests investigating plausible developments further by creating scenarios. The question of whether there will be a civil war in the United States is examined, reminiscent of questions asked in the last years of the Soviet Union. The author notes that unlike the Soviet Union, where choosing sides was difficult to imagine, the divisions in the United States make it easier to foresee.
[The Dynamics of a Potential American Civil War]
The author describes a hypothetical civil war in the 2020s as being technically about states’ rights, but also involving elements of religious war, race war, and ideological struggle. The primary division would be between blocs of red and blue states, with cities, predominantly blue, being besieged by the red-controlled federal government.
[Federal Actions and State Resistance]
The U.S. army is portrayed as generally complying with orders from the White House to assist in occupying blue cities, while ICE troopers are depicted as a private army directly answerable to the president. The recent targeting of Portland, Ore., is mentioned, and the response of Oregon's governor, Tina Kotek, is highlighted. The author emphasizes that blue-state governors are the only remaining source of constitutional authority not under MAGA control and suggests they likely have contingency plans to avoid arrest.
[Plausibility and Potential Triggers of Conflict]
The author acknowledges that while a civil war scenario is not likely, it is plausible, especially given the prevalence of guns in America. The author notes that big changes often happen suddenly, and expresses less confidence in dismissing the possibility of an American civil war compared to the situation in the old Soviet Union. The author assigns a low probability to this scenario but emphasizes that it is a non-zero possibility.
[Alternative Scenarios: Authoritarianism and Economic Decline]
The author considers less dire scenarios, such as the U.S. becoming an authoritarian state similar to Hungary, with predictable elections. The author also touches on the potential for economic decline, drawing a parallel to Argentina's past century and suggesting the U.S. could follow a similar path. The author refrains from assigning a probability to this scenario due to its surprisingly high likelihood.