Brief Summary
Kim provides a morning outlook, focusing on the potential impact of the ECB meeting on European currencies, particularly the Euro. He discusses various currency pairs, including the pound, US dollar yen, and Aussie yen, assessing their potential movements based on pivot points and resistance levels. He also touches on gold, oil, and equity markets, noting consolidation and a lack of clear trends.
- The ECB meeting and press conference are key events influencing Euro trading.
- Yen pairs are showing potential for reactions off pivot points.
- Equity markets are flatlining, with potential for movement depending on the ECB meeting.
ECB Meeting and Euro Analysis
Kim starts by highlighting the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference, noting the uncertainty it introduces into Euro trading. He mentions the expectation of a 0.25% reduction in the main financing rate. He observes that the Euro has been consolidating and advises caution due to the unpredictable nature of the news events.
Pound and Yen Pair Insights
The pound is showing slow upward movement, but Kim expresses reservations about its strength. He identifies potential resistance near R1 and a quarterly pivot, suggesting a cautious approach. He then shifts focus to US dollar yen and other yen pairs, noting their pullback to pivot points. Kim considers potential shorting opportunities in pound yen or Aussie yen if they break down, particularly targeting S1.
Currency Crosses and Market Aversion
Kim avoids Euro pairs due to the uncertainty surrounding the ECB meeting. He describes pound crosses like pound Aussie and pound New Zealand as "ugly" and undesirable due to their lack of movement and increased risk. He prefers to stay in cash, waiting for clearer market signals, particularly from the yen pairs.
Commodities and Equity Market Overview
Gold is consolidating without a clear direction, leading Kim to avoid risky trades. Oil exhibits a similar sideward and choppy trend. He reviews the S&P 500 and FTSE, describing their recent performance as "horrible" and "ugly," respectively, with flatlining near the top. The DAX is struggling but has the potential to push higher depending on the ECB meeting's outcome.
