Brief Summary
Kim provides a morning outlook, focusing on potential trading opportunities in the currency markets, gold, oil, and indices. Economic news is light, with attention on an FMC meeting and a speech by Fed speaker Qashqari. The analysis covers major currency pairs, highlighting key levels and potential movements, while also pointing out markets to avoid due to choppy conditions.
- Euro is structurally weak, watching weekly pivot for potential bounce.
- Dollar strength is emerging, but reversals are possible.
- Aussie dollar is too choppy to trade.
- Euro/Pound short trade is active, waiting for a break.
Introduction and News
Kim starts the morning outlook by noting the limited trading opportunities. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 3.25%, as expected. The economic calendar includes an FMC meeting and a speech by Fed speaker Qashqari, who is often closely watched.
Currency Market Analysis
The Euro has broken down from a pivot swing on the dailies and is testing its weekly pivot. A break below the S1 level could lead to further downside towards S2. The Pound is showing similar price action but is slightly stronger. A breakdown could send it back towards its S2. Dollar strength appears to be emerging, but a reversal is possible given the support levels on the Euro.
USD/JPY and AUD/USD
USD/JPY is running into resistance around its quarterly and weekly R1 pivots, with potential for a drop. A break below the pivot could signal further downside. Aussie/USD is described as very choppy, making it an unattractive pair for daily trading. A continuation to the downside is anticipated, with the price near its quarterly R1 pivot.
USD/CAD and NZD/USD
USD/CAD is showing a bounce, but the presenter considers it too risky to short, as it's at S2 territory. NZD/USD is also described as a "horrible mess," similar to the Aussie, with no clear trading opportunities despite positive news.
USD/CHF and EUR/JPY
USD/CHF shows a bullish engulfing pattern and has broken its weekly pivot, but the conviction of the bounce is questionable. EUR/JPY is described as ugly but rewarded the presenter with an auto trade yesterday. Another setup is possible if a bullish bar forms.
EUR/GBP Trade Idea
The presenter has a short position on EUR/GBP, entered at 0.8377, with a stop loss at 0.8420 and a target at 0.8305. The presenter advises waiting for the price to come back down before considering a similar trade.
EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD and AUD/CAD
EUR/AUD is a mess, EUR/NZD is not looking pretty, and EUR/CAD turned into a chop after a pivot swing. The presenter is watching AUD/CAD on larger timeframes for a potential swing trade, noting lower highs and lower lows, indicating a weak market.
Gold and Oil Analysis
Gold is consolidating and becoming more bearish, breaking below the 200 and 50 moving averages. The longer it stays around this area, the more likely it is to fold. Oil is described as a real mess, with the presenter missing recent opportunities and finding it currently in "no man's land."
S&P 500 and FTSE Analysis
The S&P 500 is retracing slightly but could still break to the upside. Shorting is not recommended, and the pivot may provide support. The FTSE is down slightly and hasn't grabbed momentum, but it's still near all-time highs. A move above its daily pivot would look more bullish.
DAX Analysis and Conclusion
The DAX made new all-time highs and ran up to its R2 without catching the pivot. Patience is advised, and the presenter would prefer it to catch its pivot before considering a long position. Breaking the highs would also signal a more bullish outlook.
