TLDR;
This video discusses the potential for a ceasefire in the Middle East, the involvement of various countries, and the impact on the stock market. It also covers specific stocks to watch, including QQQ, SNDK, EQT, and Circle, as well as momentum plays like USO, NIT, and Oracle. Additionally, it highlights a large options trade in Shift4 Payments (FOUR) and encourages viewers to join the Stocked Up Discord group for trading insights.
- Potential ceasefire in the Middle East impacting markets.
- Key stocks to watch: QQQ, SNDK, EQT, Circle, USO, NIT, Oracle, and FOUR.
- Large options trade in Shift4 Payments (FOUR) indicating potential upside.
Big Implications for Tomorrow [0:00]
The US and Israel reportedly struck more Iranian energy facilities, causing market volatility. The 30-year mortgage rate jumped back to 7%. Trump claims Iran wants a deal and the war is won, while Saudi Arabia is considering joining the conflict. Israel insists its campaign will continue with full intensity and is monitoring US-Iran negotiations. The US has ordered 3,000 more service members to the Middle East, adding to the existing 50,000.
The US has presented Iran with a 15-point plan via Pakistan to end the war, potentially leading to a month-long ceasefire. This news boosted markets in after-hours trading. Trump asserts Iran agreed to never have nuclear weapons. Iran told CNN it is open to listening to US proposals, and Pakistan has offered to host talks. Saudi Arabia is reportedly pushing Trump to stay in the war, seeing it as an opportunity to reshape the Middle East. Israel maintains it is still at war and will protect its interests regardless of Trump's actions. Iranian media reports new US and Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities, potentially escalating the conflict. Iran is selectively allowing ships through the Strait of Hormuz, charging up to 2 million Chinese yuan for safe passage, possibly to fund its war efforts.
The SPY is 6.91% away from all-time highs and experienced a 1% increase following the ceasefire news. The SPY is showing a trend of higher lows off the recent low of 2026 and bounced off the 650 support zone. Key resistance levels for the SPY are 662.50 and 666.80. The 30-year mortgage rate jumping back to 7% suggests the stock market may not be fully accounting for the potential costs of the war. A pullback could see the SPY testing the 613 level. The only certainty is uncertainty, which could be beneficial for traders. The Pentagon is deploying 3,000 additional troops to the Middle East, signaling that boots on the ground are still a possibility. Oil data and Fed speakers are scheduled for later in the week, with Beyond Meat reporting earnings after close.
Favorite Setups & Predictions [7:06]
QQQ is on the radar to the downside, especially if it breaks below the 582 support area, due to weakness in tech stocks. SPY has a similar support area around 650. SNDK is being watched for a potential upside move, with a base forming around the 680 support level and a breakout possible past the 715 high of day. A sell wall at 710 and 715 could lead to a move towards 730 if broken.
EQT, a US natural gas producer, remains bullish due to the potential for prolonged energy capacity issues in the Middle East, even if the Iran situation calms down. A retest and break above the $67 area would be a positive sign. Circle (CRCL) had a bad day, closing down over 20% due to the latest version of the Clarity Act, which could prohibit platforms from offering yield on stable coin holdings. A potential move down to fill the gap back to around $65 to $70 is being watched.
USO (United States Oil Fund) is being monitored for a downside move if it breaks under the low from yesterday, around 106.50. NIT (Nite), a company specializing in high-energy fiber lasers for counter-drone systems, is approaching a big resistance at $73 and could move to the upside if broken. Oracle (OCL) is being watched for a downside move if it breaks under 146, the low from the week, due to the hit software companies took.
Shift4 Payments (FOUR) saw a large $1.85 million investment in call options expiring in December 2026. The stock is up over 25% in two days with no public news, has a 30% short float, and the founder has bought over $17 million worth of shares since February 26th. The stock is approaching a large zone of support between $40 and $42, and a bounce off this zone could lead to a significant uptrend.
