TECHNICAL TUESDAY!! [LIVE]

TLDR;

This YouTube stream features a discussion on market analysis, stock picks, and economic factors influencing investment decisions. The hosts analyze Reddit, Nvidia, and other stocks using technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis. They also discuss the potential impact of the Fed's decisions, economic cycles, and historical asset class performance on the market.

Technical analysis of Reddit, Nvidia, and other stocks.
Discussion of economic cycles and the potential for stagflation.
Analysis of the Fed's influence on market sentiment and rate cut expectations.

Intro [0:00]

The stream begins with an introduction of the hosts, Steve and Jason, who are filling in for Amit. They discuss their plans for the show, including analyzing various stocks and market trends. They also touch on their upcoming dinner plans with Amit, Evan, and Stock Talk, pondering the best dining options for the group. Before diving into the analysis, they remind viewers to read the disclaimer, emphasizing that they are not financial advisors and viewers should do their own due diligence.

Types of Analysis [4:00]

Steve expresses his interest in learning technical analysis to improve his investment decisions. Jason explains the importance of combining fundamental, technical, and sentiment analysis when picking stocks. He notes that technical analysis is useful for timing entries and exits, while sentiment analysis can be influenced by external factors like news or social media. Jason mentions that his analysis is generally good for a couple of months, but sentiment can change rapidly.

Technical Analysis [8:50]

Jason shares his screen to begin the technical analysis, starting with Reddit. He explains that technical analysis involves measuring price movements and volume to identify support and resistance levels. For Reddit, he identifies a support level around $120, suggesting that investors might consider nibbling at the stock around that price. He also notes that if the stock trades above $160, it could be a sign of recovery and a more aggressive buying opportunity.

Reddit / #rddt / #reddit [10:15]

Jason continues his technical analysis of Reddit, discussing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as an indicator of oversold and overbought conditions. He clarifies that an oversold RSI doesn't necessarily mean the stock will bounce, but rather that it might take a breather from going down. He emphasizes the importance of the 50 line on the RSI as a better indicator of trend. Jason also mentions the potential for bullish divergence on the RSI, which could signal a buying opportunity.

CME FedWatch and FOMC [22:30]

Steve expresses concern about the Fed's upcoming announcement, citing high oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. He worries that the Fed might take a hawkish stance, which could negatively impact the market. Jason explains that the market is currently pricing in very few rate cuts for the year, and the Fed's commentary will be crucial in shaping expectations. They discuss the potential for stagflation and the importance of oil prices in influencing inflation.

Economic Cycles & Monetary States [29:40]

Jason describes the main market cycles, including Goldilocks, inflationary/reflationary, and deflationary/disinflationary periods. He notes that stagflation, characterized by weak growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, is the worst scenario for equities. In a stagflationary environment, commodities and gold tend to perform best. He emphasizes the importance of the relationship between inflation and GDP in determining market sentiment.

Historical Asset Class Performance [31:10]

Jason presents a historical overview of asset class performance during different economic cycles. He reiterates that commodities and gold tend to outperform equities during stagflation. He also notes that the market wants to go higher, but there are several factors holding it back.

SPY / #spy [34:15]

Jason analyzes the SPY chart, using non-farm payroll (NFP) data to identify key resistance levels. He explains that the NFP data often marks critical levels for the market. He identifies 678 as a key level to watch, noting that the market is unlikely to go higher unless it breaks above that level. He also points out potential support levels around 650.

IShares / #igv [40:00]

Jason shifts focus to IGV, an ETF that tracks the software sector. He notes that it has bottomed out but is not getting a lot of love. He identifies it as a key area of support, suggesting that a bounce in IGV could signal a recovery for beaten-down software names.

Ivensco / #rsp [41:00]

Jason discusses RSP, an equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF. He emphasizes the importance of watching IGV and RSP together, noting that if both are going higher, it could signal all-time highs for the market. Conversely, if they are going in opposite directions, it could indicate choppy or sideways action.

Nvidia / #nvda / #nvidia [41:50]

The hosts discuss Nvidia in light of Jensen's comments at GTC. Jason summarizes Jensen's statement as having sight to at least $1 trillion through 2027 in AI demand and we'll probably be short. Steve interprets Jensen's comments and compares them to prior estimates. They discuss whether the market has already priced in the expected revenue growth and what a reasonable price target for Nvidia might be. Jason identifies 170 as a key support level and 210 as a potential upside target.

Nebius Group / #nbis / #nebius [52:15]

Jason analyzes Nebius, noting that it has been a good stock for selling premiums. He points out that the stock recently shot up due to a deal with Microsoft but came down after issuing shares. He identifies 108 as a prior resistance level that could become future support. Jason suggests that Nebius is more of an equity play, but leap spreads could be an option due to the potential for big headlines.

CoreWeave / #crwv / #coreweave [55:15]

The hosts discuss CoreWeave, comparing it to Nebius. Steve notes that CoreWeave has a weaker balance sheet and is burning through cash. Jason points out that CoreWeave's IPO high is around $65, which is acting as general support. He notes that CoreWeave will trade based off of sentiment very much so.

Ondas / #onds / #ondas [1:00:00]

Jason analyzes Ondas, a drone company. He notes that the company is expected to report earnings soon and is going to be insanely expensive. He warns that the appetite for defense stocks might diminish if there is a ceasefire. Technically speaking 16 plus is where it should go. You could actually see $18 and a half from here which represents a pretty good trade.

Microsoft / #msft / #microsoft [1:08:00]

Jason discusses Microsoft, suggesting that investors start dollar-cost averaging at current levels. He identifies 370 as a key level to watch for further dips. He notes that Microsoft tends to hold its premium and is likely to be a buyer of smaller software companies. Jason also points out a potential squeeze building in the near term, with 415 as a key level to break for a move to 470.

Amit asking Jensen a Q [1:14:50]

The hosts play a clip of Amit asking Jensen Huang about the value proposition of legacy software companies in the age of AI. Jensen responds that AI will not replace these companies.

Historical Presidential Cycle [1:17:00]

Jason discusses the four-year presidential cycle and its impact on the stock market. He notes that historically, year two of the cycle tends to be weak, with a sell-off in the second half of the year. He suggests that this year could be a good opportunity to accumulate cash for a Black Friday shopping spree in the market.

Salesforce / #crm / #salesforce [1:20:30]

Jason analyzes Salesforce, noting that the company has announced a $25 billion buyback. He expresses mixed feelings about the buyback, suggesting that it might indicate a lack of better investment opportunities. He identifies 220 as a key level to watch for a breakout from the downtrend.

ServiceNow / #now / #servicenow [1:24:38]

Jason discusses ServiceNow, noting that it is in the blast radius of the software sector downturn. He points out that ServiceNow is less sticky than Salesforce but still heavily embedded in the enterprise. He identifies a support area between the mid to low 80s and a breakout level at 135.

SoFi / #sofi [1:27:20]

Jason analyzes SoFi, noting that a short report came out today. He points out that the stock is currently at a 50% pullback level, which is an okay discount. He identifies a support area between 16 and 14, cautioning that a break below that level could lead to further downside.

JP Morgan Chase / #jpmorgan / #jpm [1:33:30]

The hosts briefly discuss Basel 3 and its potential impact on financial institutions. They note that SoFi is not subject to Basel 3 requirements.

Delta Air Lines / #dal [1:34:40]

Jason discusses Delta Air Lines as a best-of-breed travel stock. He suggests that travel stocks could be a counterintuitive bet if oil prices come down.

Royal Caribbean / #rcl / #royalcaribbean [1:36:00]

Jason analyzes Royal Caribbean, noting that it is at trend support. He suggests that investors might consider nibbling at the stock around 270. He also notes that Royal Caribbean could benefit from lower oil prices.

Carnival / #ccl / #carnival [1:38:20]

Jason briefly mentions Carnival, noting that it reports earnings at the end of the month.

Iren Limited / #iren [1:40:40]

Jason analyzes Iren, noting that he wants to see it holding over 45. Below 41 you you don't want it below 41 she gone to 33s but that is that is the I read chart.

Micron Tech / #mu [1:41:40]

The hosts discuss Micron, with Steve noting that it is trading at a low PE ratio. They debate whether Micron or Nvidia is a better buy based on fundamentals. Jason analyzes the Micron chart, identifying a potential measured move to 550 if it holds over 455 after earnings.

Sandisk / #sndk / #sandisk [1:54:00]

Jason analyzes Sandisk, noting that it is getting a Paris trade-type move. He points out that the stock is trading at 40 times earnings, which is not cheap.

Seagate Tech / #stx / #seagate [1:56:00]

Jason analyzes Seagate, noting that it looks like a catch-up trade. He suggests that Seagate might be the best chart setup in the moment.

Venture Global / #vg [1:57:30]

The hosts discuss Venture Global, with Jason noting that he is not in the stock but likes the theme.

Recap from Monday [1:57:50]

Jason references a Monday stream where he discussed a $56 billion energy deal between Japan and the US, noting that a significant portion of that deal is tied to Venture Global.

Occidental Petroleum / #oxy [2:01:30]

Jason discusses Occidental Petroleum, noting that it is already at his first target.

NextDecade / #next [2:03:35]

Jason analyzes NextDecade, noting that the chart looks good. He identifies a rounding bottom pattern and a potential move to 660. He cautions that the stock is super high risk due to its small market cap.

WTI Crude / #usoil [2:20:00]

The hosts briefly discuss WTI Crude and natural gas.

Natural Gas / #ng [2:21:20]

The hosts briefly discuss WTI Crude and natural gas.

Crude Oil Rigs [2:22:35]

The hosts discuss the Baker Hughes rig count report, noting that the number of oil rigs is down significantly from previous years.

AI gen Steve Projection [2:24:40]

Jason reveals that he asked Claude to build him a free cash flow model for NextDecade, using the company's 10K and shareholder deck.

Robinhood / #hood [2:29:40]

Jason analyzes Robinhood, noting that March Madness could provide a boost to revenue. He suggests that a bounce to the 90s is possible, but the stock still has a lot of work to do.