Brief Summary
This YouTube live session by Ellen May discusses the current market situation, influenced by geopolitical events and Trump's policies. It covers the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict, trade war tariffs, and potential interest rate cuts on the Indonesian stock market (IHSG). The session also touches on specific stocks, investment strategies, and upcoming IDX policy changes, providing insights for both beginner and experienced traders.
- Impact of geopolitical events and Trump's policies on the market
- Analysis of specific stocks and trading strategies
- Overview of upcoming IDX policy changes
Market Overview and Trump's Drama
The JCI fell 0.54% today, influenced by the ongoing Trump drama that started with tariff wars and extended to the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite the apparent end of the war, oil prices are fluctuating due to Trump's actions, creating uncertainty in the market. The market's recent decline presents both opportunities and challenges for investors, requiring careful consideration to avoid catching a falling knife.
Geopolitical Situation and Trump's Strategy
The 12-day standoff between Iran and Israel has halted, but Trump's involvement continues to stir the market. Trump initially criticized Iran and Israel for their conflict but later claimed credit for brokering peace. He also allowed China to buy oil from Iran, despite previous sanctions, causing oil prices to drop by 6%. This move is seen as a political strategy to open new trade negotiation channels with China and promote peace in the Middle East.
Tariffs and Market Sentiment
With the reciprocal tariff deadline approaching on July 9th, the European Union is threatening retaliatory tariffs on American goods. Trump's pattern of creating chaos and then fixing it is noted, suggesting a negotiation tactic. The market is also awaiting an interest rate cut, initially fueled by positive news from Christopher Waller, but Jerome Powell has urged caution due to the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation and the economy.
Chart Analysis and Market Bottom
The IHSG has been driven by big bank stocks, presenting opportunities for bottom market investments. Historical data shows that periods of peak fear can be profitable for long-term investors who buy low. The oil price movements are closely tied to Trump's actions, with prices falling after he allowed China to buy Iranian oil.
Stock Analysis and Trading Strategies
Metco Energy Internasional shows signs of distribution, while ENRG indicates accumulation. Elsa is undergoing retracement, and Indika Energy stocks experienced a breakdown with small transaction volumes. PTBA also went down with a small transaction volume after distributing dividends. BRMS is at its support level, while Toba is undergoing retracement.
Danantara Investment and IDX Policies
Danantara is eyeing the entertainment and creative industries, particularly K-pop and South Korean media, to promote Indonesian culture. They have injected 6.65 trillion into Gia to improve Garuda's operations. BKSL's PLTS project is under watch, and PGEO has the potential for investment from Danantara. The World Bank warns of fiscal risks if Danantara's investments perform poorly, emphasizing the need for transparency and accountability. The government will impose taxes on online traders, and IDX plans to extend trading hours, partially reopen broker codes, and tighten ARB limits.
Market Conclusion and Stock Recommendations
The market has seen a decline, especially in commodity stocks with small transaction volumes, indicating decreasing selling pressure. Big investors are not selling excessively, and the condition is not worse than two days ago. It's crucial to understand market cycles and strengthen trading methods. The session concludes with information about an MT program for Indonesian stock coaches and a reminder to avoid being swayed by fear and greed in the market.
