Brief Summary
This YouTube live session by Ellen May discusses the current state of the Indonesian stock market (IHSG), global economic factors such as Trump's tariffs and their impact, and specific stock analysis. It also covers crypto and gold, and provides updates on commodity stocks. The session emphasizes the importance of money management and offers insights into identifying potential breakouts in US stocks, particularly in the healthcare sector.
- IHSG is consolidating, awaiting news on July 9th, influenced by global factors like Trump's tariffs.
- Trump's economic policies, including tax cuts and increased military spending, could lead to rising bond interest rates and inflation.
- Indonesian economic growth projections have been revised downwards, impacting President Prabowo's economic goals.
- TWR shares are issuing new shares at a price higher than the market price, which could lead to negative dilution for existing shareholders.
- US stocks, particularly in the healthcare sector, show potential for breakouts, contrasting with the already high technology sector.
- Commodity stocks in Indonesia are currently calm, with potential for slower growth.
- Microsoft is reportedly laying off employees, indicating a possible overvaluation in the technology sector.
- Crypto is moving sideways, similar to stocks, with Bitcoin and Ethereum also showing sideways movement.
- Gold is suitable for sideways trading, but a larger time frame is preferred for trend visibility.
IHSG and Market Overview
The IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index) previously showed a downtrend line from a high on June 11th, which was touched again on July 1st before falling slightly. The nominal market value transaction in the regular market is around 9.1 trillion, with foreigners netting 386 billion, primarily selling BCA shares. The IHSG's recent bounce is considered temporary, with a potential path down to level 6801, followed by consolidation or sideways movement, awaiting news on July 9th.
Trump's Tariffs and Economic Impact
Trump passed a $3.3 trillion tax and spending bill in the Senate, which includes tax cuts but also reduces social assistance and increases military spending. While tax cuts can boost the economy, reducing social assistance may limit the overall impact. Trump's policies could increase America's debt, potentially leading to higher bond interest rates and making it difficult for interest rates to fall. Trump is also threatening new tariffs on 200 countries, creating stress for big investors and contributing to the stock market's slowdown since the end of May.
Indonesian Economic Growth
The projection for Indonesia's economic growth has been revised downwards from 5% to 4.7%. This slowdown may hinder President Prabowo's goal of 8% economic growth in the next few years. According to the Minister of Finance, the economy in Indonesia is expected to slow down in the second semester of 2025, with international institutions like the World Bank and IMF providing similar predictions of around 4.7% for 2025.
Stock Analysis: BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, BBNI
BBCA is down but hasn't reached its support level of 8475, which is considered a sacred support. BBRI's financial report indicates a slowdown, which was predicted at the beginning of the year for banking in Indonesia. BRI support is at 3,600. BMRI support is at 46, while BBNI is supported at 3990, with the next support at 3670. Banking stocks can be used for trading with patience.
Active Stocks: BRPT, TWR
BRPT's profit wants to IPO CDI, but the stock is currently going down. TWR shares want to issue 8.1 billion shares at a price of Rp680, which is higher than the market price of 550. The important dates for the TWR CAMD and XD rights issue on the regular market are July 8 and 9. The rights issue could lead to negative dilution to the share price, reducing dividends per share for existing shareholders.
TWR Rights Issue and US Job Market
TWR shares are issuing 8.1 billion new shares at Rp680 per share, significantly above the market price of Rp550. This rights issue could dilute the value for existing shareholders. The number of job vacancies in America increased by 374,000, the highest since November 2022, indicating a positive US labor market that could cause inflation to rise slightly.
Commodity Stocks and ADMR Stop Loss
ADMR was hit by a stop loss, falling with a decent transaction volume. Despite support at MA 100, the decision was made to cut losses. Money management is crucial in trading, and it's important not to let feelings influence decisions. When big bank shares fall heavily, it's a good time to invest more.
US Stocks and Healthcare Sector
Several US stocks are being observed, with choices being more numerous than Indonesian stocks. Stocks like United Health Group, MERK and Company, and Moderna (MRNA) from the healthcare sector show potential breakouts. KSS Corporation also shows a reversal pattern and can be monitored. The healthcare sector in the US is being watched for potential growth.
Crypto and Gold Market Analysis
Crypto movements are similar to stocks, with Bitcoin and Ethereum moving sideways. Gold is suitable for sideways trading, with some traders using intraday strategies. However, a larger time frame is preferred for better trend visibility. Toba shares are given as an example of a stock with a more visible trend.
Microsoft Layoffs and Sector Comparison
Microsoft is reportedly laying off up to 9,000 employees, which would be the biggest wave of layoffs since 2023. The technology sector has risen rapidly in the US, while the health sector is only at the beginning of its cycle. Stocks from the health sector are preferred over chasing the already high technology sector.
MTrade Academy and Market Conclusion
The Indonesian market has been stagnant, with both bank stocks and commodity stocks slowing down. This is considered normal due to the possibility of reciprocal rates being paused. Trump is expected to be fierce again on July 9th. Money management is crucial, with a strategy to enter big stocks at the bottom when they fall and use trading for when they go up. The Mtrade pinacle portfolio emphasizes cash and cash equivalents for investing, with trading above for money management.
