Brief Summary
Ellen May discusses the latest stock market updates, focusing on the IHSG, big bank stocks, and conglomerate shares. She also touches on external factors like the US-China trade negotiations and their impact on investor behavior. The session includes technical analysis of various stocks, profit-taking strategies, and insights into IPOs and stock splits. Ellen emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and offers guidance through MTrade Academy and webinars.
- IHSG is testing resistance at 7240-7241, with big investors taking profits.
- Big bank stocks are bouncing, but transaction volumes are not high.
- External factors like the US-China trade negotiations significantly impact investor decisions.
- IPOs and stock splits can create opportunities, but caution and strategic planning are essential.
- Continuous learning and technical analysis are crucial for successful trading and investment.
Introduction
Ellen May introduces herself as a stock market educator since 2011, now also covering US stocks and crypto. She mentions an upcoming M3 Start Basic Trading Mastery webinar on June 14, designed to teach trading for US stocks, crypto, and Indonesian stocks. The live session will focus on daily stock updates rather than detailed trading strategies, which are covered in the Mtrade Start webinar.
IHSG and Big Banks Analysis
Ellen discusses the IHSG, noting that after a correction to the 20 EM moving average on June 3, it is now testing resistance at 7240-7241. She points out that many big investors have started taking profits. Shares of big banks are up, with Bank Mandiri (BMRI) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) being interesting for collection due to slight valuation discounts. She notes that while these banks are bouncing from minor support, the transaction volume is small compared to the high volume seen on May 14 and 15, which accompanied a breakout.
Strategic Recommendations and Market Uncertainties
Ellen suggests that the market is likely to move sideways. She highlights that BMRI is also bouncing from its support area. While buying on weakness can be profitable, she advises against going all in due to uncertainties related to the tariff war between the US and China. Despite these uncertainties, she believes there is still potential for both trading and investing, emphasizing that it's better to participate than to miss out.
BBRI and BBNI Stock Analysis
BBRI is more uptrending but has returned to stage 1 at 4050, remaining in stage 2, which indicates an uptrend. She mentions that this type of knowledge is taught at MT Academy. BBRI is currently in a retracement with strong support at 3970, and a further drop to 370 would be a good entry point. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) is already close to resistance, and Ellen notes that BNI has been the most profitable in the short term for her.
Conglomerate Stocks and Market Movers
Ellen plans to discuss Mr. Prabowo's actions in saving Raja Ampat, Trump's negotiations with China, and the performance of conglomerate stocks. She focuses on the Barito, Bakri, and Hapsoro groups, acknowledging her team's help in providing data. Shares of Cuan (Papa PP) are frequently asked about, and she also intends to discuss stocks from the Bakri and Hapsoro groups, specifically Raja and Ratu.
Analysis of Cuan Shares and Stock Splits
Cuan shares broke out on June 5, driven by the sentiment that CDI, a subsidiary, is going to IPO. A stock split of 1 share for 10 is scheduled for June 30, 2025. Ellen explains that while a stock split increases the number of shares, the total value remains the same. She notes that after a stock split, the stock tends to move sideways, with the overall impact depending on market conditions.
BRPT and TPI Stocks
Barito Pacific (BRPT) is discussing the approval of net profit use and changes to the company's articles of association. Ellen advises holding BRPT and preparing to take profits gradually, cautioning against chasing the stock. TPI's subsidiary is planning to go public, providing a positive catalyst for TPI. CDI, which operates in infrastructure investment, is targeting capital of 2.37 trillion through its IPO.
IPO Strategies and Investment Philosophy
Ellen discusses strategies for taking advantage of IPO fluctuations, advising caution and not going all in. She suggests selling on the first or second day when auto reject is triggered. For long-term investment, she prefers Warren Buffet's method, while for trading, she recommends the super trader method with money management. She believes IPO shares often have high valuations, making them less suitable for long-term investing.
Barito Renewables Energy and Technical Analysis
Ellen discusses Barito Renewables Energy, noting that it has been slower compared to other stocks but is now showing signs of growth due to the upcoming CDI IPO. She emphasizes a purely technical approach, disregarding sentiments and focusing on the stock price trend.
Prabowo's Actions and US-China Negotiations
Ellen discusses Mr. Prabowo's decision to revoke nickel mining permits in Raja Ampat, noting that it doesn't seem to have a significant impact on issuers on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. She then transitions to the ongoing negotiations between the US and China, focusing on rare earth and technology. She notes that the potential end of the 90-day tariff pause in early July is causing many big investors to take profits.
Impact of Tariff War and Foreign Investor Activity
Ellen highlights the significant impact of the US-China trade negotiations on investor behavior, noting that many big investors are taking profits. She points out that foreign investors, such as JP Morgan, are also engaging in profit-taking in Indonesian banking stocks like BBCA, BBRI, and BMRI. Despite this, she reassures that the profit-taking is only a small percentage of their overall portfolio.
Analysis of BBTN and Conglomerate Stocks
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN), which recently acquired Bank Victoria Syariah, is showing signs of turning green, but Ellen suggests it may move sideways rather than immediately trending upward. She then returns to discussing conglomerate stocks from the Bakri and Hapsoro groups.
Bakri Group Stocks: BRMS and ENRG
Bakrie & Brothers (BRMS) is active, but the big trend is still sideways, though it has risen in the last three days with significant volume. Energy Mega Persada (ENRG) broke out from June 4th and has since retraced, so it is still on hold. Ellen reviews several Mtrade stocks, noting short-term profit-taking and medium-term holdings.
Hapsoro Group Stocks: Raja and Ratu
Ellen discusses stocks from the Hapsoro group, referring to them as Raja (King) and Ratu (Queen). Short-term profits have been taken on these stocks, but medium-term holdings are maintained. The King stock has a profit of 21 to 22% since May 22nd. For the Queen stock, short-term profits have been taken, but the chart indicates a continued rise in the medium term.
Toba Bara and PTBA Analysis
Toba Bara Sejahtra (Toba) has provided profits multiple times due to its uptrend. The current holding for Toba has a profit of 36 to 37%, with plans to swing trade on the next retracement. Bukit Asam (PTBA) is being watched after a period of sideways movement with declining volume. Ellen is holding PTBA for dividend investing.
LSIP and Other Stock Observations
Ellen notes that London Sumatra (LSIP) is active, and she advises holding it. She also mentions holding Dewa Dharma Henwa (Dewa). She reiterates that active stocks are traded for the short term, while PGEO is held in the medium term. She notes vigilance due to the 90-day local tariff period and includes PGEO on the watchlist.
Danantara, GoTo, and Grab
Ellen addresses rumors about Danantara and GoTo, including speculation about Grab acquiring GoTo, which has not been confirmed. Grab announced the sale of convertible bonds worth $1.25 billion, potentially for acquisitions and share buybacks. Speculation about a merger with Grab has made GoTo shares active, but Ellen notes that this is not her or MTrade's style, as the big trend for GoTo is sideways to a decline.
GoTo's Trend and Market Outlook
Ellen explains that GoTo has been trending sideways since January 2025 and has been on a downtrend since the end of May. She advises traders to avoid it for now. She also mentions upcoming dividend payouts for several stocks on June 11th and 13th.
Stock Recommendations and MTrade Programs
Ellen encourages viewers to DM Mtrade Start to learn stock trading and join the basic trading mastery event on June 14. She notes that Atlas Resources (ATI) bounced in support, making it a speculative buy. She also comments on other stocks like Aneka Tambang (Antam) and Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT), providing potential retracement levels.
Technical Analysis and Closing Remarks
Ellen analyzes several stocks, including AKR Corporindo (AKRA), Adaro Energy (ADRO), and Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC). She emphasizes the importance of understanding whether a downtrend is a true downtrend or just a retracement. She promotes MTrade Academy for comprehensive learning and mentions discounts for those who join Mtrestan on June 14. She concludes by highlighting the importance of investing in knowledge and encourages viewers to watch the morning briefing for tomorrow's trading watchlist.
