Brief Summary
This video features a discussion on the Egyptian Stock Exchange's recent performance, global economic trends, and the potential shift away from the US dollar. The conversation covers the factors influencing the EGX30 index, the impact of international events on oil prices and stock markets, and the move towards digital currencies by various countries.
- The EGX30 index has shown strong gains, but liquidity remains a concern.
- Global events, such as tensions between Iran and Israel, significantly impact oil prices and stock markets.
- There's a growing trend among countries to issue digital currencies to reduce reliance on the US dollar.
Improvement in Indicators and Dollar Flows
The Egyptian money and stock market have improved due to the removal of risks to navigation in the Suez Canal and a decrease in ambiguity. This has led to a state of reassurance and increased certainty. Remittances from Egyptians abroad have also contributed to this positive trend.
EGX30 Index and Market Dynamics
The EGX30 index has seen a significant jump, with the index heading towards 32,150-32,170, considered safe areas. However, traders and investors should be cautious around 33,800, as it may be an area of strong profit-taking. Despite the index's rise, there's a disparity between the EGX30 index and individual companies' prices, with many companies not reflecting the index's gains.
Geopolitical Events and Oil Prices
The response of Iran to America by striking the Al-Udeid base in Qatar led to a drop in oil prices, indicating prior understandings or agreements to end the dispute. Oil prices fell significantly, and further declines are expected, potentially reaching $45 in 2025. This is partly due to expectations that China will start buying Iranian oil, leading to the lifting of some sanctions and increased Iranian oil in the global market.
Egyptian Stock Exchange Performance
The Egyptian Stock Exchange has achieved the best performance among Arab stock exchanges. However, the EGX XTer index shows a different picture, with many companies not reflecting the index's gains. The current liquidity of 6 billion pounds is considered low relative to the index's rise and the exchange rate.
Dollar's Value and Economic Factors
Despite claims that the dollar's value will deteriorate, this is considered false. The dollar is expected to rise in the coming weeks, potentially reaching 49 before recovering to the 52-54 range. The government's efforts to obtain loans suggest a lack of confidence in the dollar's decline.
Canada, the US, and Trade Agreements
Canada is seeking new trade agreements with the European Union due to differences with the US, particularly regarding customs tariffs. These disputes are expected to continue, and Canada may resort to the European Union to distance itself from American economic policy.
Gold Prices and Market Influences
Gold prices are currently low, and a further drop below $3,000 is expected if some sanctions on Iran are lifted, leading to increased Iranian oil in global markets. Central banks worldwide are buying gold, considering it a fixed asset.
American Stocks and Global Economic Shifts
American stocks are affected by customs tariffs and the creation of alternatives by Canada and Europe. The Dow Jones Index has recorded historical peaks, while most Arab markets have not.
Digital Currencies and Monetary Policy
China and Arab countries are moving towards issuing digital currencies to separate from the dollar's dominance. The BRICS organization plans to issue a digital currency to compete with Bitcoin. This shift is driven by the desire to avoid the risks associated with linking currencies to the dollar.
Digital Transformation and Future Expectations
Some Arab countries are working on digital transformation systems and are expected to issue digital currencies as alternatives to the dollar. These currencies will be supported by central bank policies. By 2026, Gulf countries may not have a main currency linked to the dollar, using digital currencies to compensate for deficiencies and move away from dollar dominance.
