TLDR;
This podcast episode previews the fourth Ashes Test, focusing on potential team line-ups, pitch conditions at the MCG, and betting strategies. The experts discuss the likelihood of a competitive match, player win rates, and special bets, highlighting opportunities with 7bet.co.uk. They also touch on the struggles of England's batting line-up and potential advantages for bowlers given the expected conditions.
- Team line-ups and potential changes for both Australia and England are discussed.
- Pitch conditions at the MCG are expected to favour bowlers, with overcast conditions and potential rain.
- Betting strategies and special bets are highlighted, including under on series sixes and lowest all out team score.
Introduction [0:00]
Ed Hawkins introduces the podcast, previewing the fourth Ashes Test and welcoming Paul Krishna Merty and Richard Mann. They acknowledge recent VIP Telegram channel successes, despite injury setbacks, and promote subscription for best bets. The discussion sets the stage for analysing England's chances of recovery and Australia's potential dominance, considering player form and series dynamics.
Overall Series Score Prediction [1:55]
Paul expresses scepticism about England's chances, citing their demoralised state and fundamental weaknesses, despite potential complacency from Australia. Richard reflects on how key moments and player availability have shaped the series, highlighting Australia's consistent performance in the basics. Both predict a 5-0 series score, but acknowledge the short odds and potential for in-play swings, suggesting laying the score in hopes of a drift.
Team Lineups and Potential Changes [5:57]
The hosts discuss possible team selections for both Australia and England. For Australia, potential changes include Kawaja, Head, Labuschagne, Smith, Green, and Carey, with Neser possibly replacing Cummins and Kunaman stepping in for Lyon. England's possible lineup features Crawley, Duckett, Bethell for Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, and Archer, with potential consideration for Atkinson or Potts over Broad and Carson. The panel debates the strengths and weaknesses of each potential lineup, considering player form and match conditions.
MCG Pitch Report and Conditions [9:12]
The discussion centres on the pitch conditions at the MCG, noting a forecast for rain in the first two days and generally overcast conditions. Historical first innings scores suggest a surface that favours bowlers. Paul anticipates low scoring due to the overcast conditions, suggesting it will be a huge advantage to bat at the right time. Richard agrees, expecting grass to be left on the pitch, exaggerating the overhead conditions and favouring Australian seamers.
Match Winner Prediction and Key Factors [13:23]
Australia is favoured to win the match, but the prohibitive odds are a concern. Paul hopes the odds will drift, especially if Australia is put in to bat on a green pitch in overcast conditions. Richard agrees that Australia is likely to win, but acknowledges that batting at the wrong time could give England a chance. He suggests waiting to see the conditions on Christmas Day night before betting on England, particularly if it's overcast with a green surface and Stokes chooses to bowl.
Additional Betting Angles and Specials [14:33]
Paul suggests betting on no century in the match, given the low-scoring expectations, and considers an innings victory plausible due to potentially favourable early conditions for one side. Richard highlights 7bet specials, particularly the under 7.5 series tons, citing a decline in batsmen's ability to bat time and make big scores. He notes that even in a high-scoring match in Adelaide, only two centuries were made, both with fortunate circumstances.
7bet Series Specials and Free Bet Offer [16:57]
Paul highlights the under 47.5 series sixes as an outstanding bet, noting the large grounds at the MCG and SCG make it difficult to hit sixes. He points out this bet has landed in the last eight winters, regardless of the opposition. The hosts remind listeners about a free £10 bet with 7bet using the promo code WFB10, encouraging sign-ups to support the podcast.
Player Win Rates and Top Batsman Picks [19:25]
The panel discusses player win rates, noting generally poor numbers across both teams. They highlight Usman Khawaja and Alex Carey as potential picks based on win rates, but express reservations about their current form and the bowler-friendly pitch. Richard suggests avoiding this market, while Paul mentions Carey's success in previous matches and considers Mitchell Stark for a low score in play.
In-Play Betting Angles and Bowled/LBW Wickets [21:41]
Richard points out that in recent Sheffield Shield games and India's matches, many wickets were taken bowled or LBW, suggesting England might pitch it up more. He highlights Root as a potential LBW candidate, given his tendency to get hit on the pads. Paul suggests Alex Carey for most sixes in the first innings for Australia, given his six-hitting record and tendency to bat with the tail.
Top Bowler Picks and Consensus on Boland [23:49]
The panel discusses top bowler picks, with Richard and Paul both strongly favouring Scott Boland due to his brilliant record at the MCG and good form in the series. They note his potential for both wickets and runs with the bat, suggesting a player performance bet. There's a consensus among all three hosts on Boland's potential for success in this match.
England Top Batsman and Bowler Picks [25:04]
The panel discusses England's top batsman and bowler picks, noting a lack of value in the market. Ed highlights Zak Crawley and Jamie Smith based on win rates, while Paul suggests Ben Stokes and, if he plays, Mark Archer as potential options. Richard mentions Josh Tongue as a solid pick for top bowler, given his recent performance and the likelihood of either Archer or Cass sitting out.
In-Play Betting and Player Specifics [28:05]
The panel discusses in-play betting strategies, with Ed noting the profitability of selling England batsmen's runs in the mid-teens. Paul prefers to see conditions before committing to such bets. Richard is against Harry Brook, suggesting his technical flaws could be exposed on a juicy deck. He also highlights Tongue as a potential top bowler pick, given his freshness and suitability to the MCG conditions.
Best Bets for the Fourth Ashes Test [30:00]
Paul's best bets include under 47.5 series sixes, England first innings runs under 225, and Scott Boland as top Australia first innings bowler. Richard's best bets include under 7.5 series tons, Harry Brook under 25.5 first innings runs, Scott Boland as man of the match, and small stakes on Guff and Pride and Cass as top England first innings batsmen.
Final Plugs and Outro [31:40]
The hosts remind listeners to subscribe to the Inplay VIP channel for the best Ashes Test bets and promote their upcoming SAT20 podcast. They thank Seven Bet for their sponsorship and promise to return with a preview of the fifth and final Ashes Test.
