TLDR;
In this live stream, Fabio from The Trading Academy reviews recent market movements, focusing on Euro weakness due to political news from France and potential trading opportunities in yen pairs, Aussie yen, and gold. He emphasises the importance of liquidity, fractal breaks, and key levels like monthly and yearly opens for making informed trading decisions.
- Euro pairs are falling due to political news from France.
- The yen basket shows potential for upside movement, especially if it breaks the descending trend line.
- Aussie yen presents a short opportunity based on yearly open rejection and fractal break.
- Gold is expected to continue its upward trend, with liquidity sweeps offering buying opportunities.
Introduction [0:02]
Fabio welcomes viewers to the live stream, apologising for the slight delay. He acknowledges viewers tuning in from various locations and confirms that the audio is clear. He mentions the success of Avalanche in passing the 400k challenge based on fundamentals and expresses eagerness to share market insights.
Euro Weakness and Euro/USD [2:45]
The Euro/USD is declining due to the French Prime Minister's resignation, which has weakened the euro across various pairs like EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, and EUR/NZD. France, being a major economy in the Euro zone alongside Germany and Spain, significantly impacts the euro's performance when negative events occur. Despite a potential breakout scenario, the Euro/USD remains within a range, making long positions less appealing due to fundamental concerns and ongoing consolidation.
Yen Basket Analysis [5:17]
The yen basket is presenting more interesting trading opportunities. The Japanese yen showed a strong upward push from its yearly open level on Friday, indicating a demand area. However, the lack of liquidity in the upward movement means the initial reaction on the demand zone needs to be liquidated. The speaker is looking for further upside on the yen basket, with the monthly open acting as a potential barrier. If the descending trend line breaks, the target is the free monthly level, aligning with a swing high.
Aussie Yen Short Opportunity [8:31]
Aussie yen is rejecting the yearly open level, with the market consistently reacting to this level. The speaker is looking for a downside reaction, having previously considered shorts after an internal high was taken. A clear, strong push towards the downside, confirmed by a fractal break, suggests a continuation of the downward trend. The speaker is currently in a short position, targeting the monthly open level, encouraged by the liquidation of the initial reaction and the 4-hour fractal break.
CAD/JPY Analysis [10:05]
CAD/JPY is trading from liquidity point to liquidity point. After taking out a high, the market initially continued with bullish fractal structure. However, when the market reaches a bump in the road (liquidity point), a potential reversal can be expected, requiring a swing high and a change of character. After a breaker structure, a pullback is anticipated, needing a liquidity high and change of character for confirmation. The speaker notes a fractal structure shift on the daily timeframe, indicating a potential sell-off after liquidity is taken out.
USD/JPY Analysis [14:11]
USD/JPY has been a consistent short setup, playing out to perfection within an overall range. The market moves from liquidity high to liquidity low. A reversal requires grabbing liquidity above a liquidity high and a change of character to the downside. The buy before the sell becomes the area of supply, with a stop-loss above the high, targeting the low of the range. Potential long positions can be considered after sweeping the low, while short positions can be considered above descending highs.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD Analysis [16:50]
EUR/USD is nearly ready for a short position if it breaks the low, targeting the lower bound of the range, contingent on a 4-hour fractal break. GBP/USD is not currently of interest. The speaker is waiting for more upside, specifically targeting liquidity points aligned with market structure. After a bullish phase ending with a breaker structure, a pullback is expected, followed by a continuation to the downside. Short positions are considered upon reaching liquidity highs and a 4-hour change of character.
AUD/USD and USD/CHF Analysis [21:43]
AUD/USD is currently bullish on the immediate timeframe, with a swing high of liquidity and bullish fractal momentum, making short positions less appealing. USD/CHF shows potential for upside due to a weak Swiss franc and dollar strength, supported by a 1-hour double fractal break at the 3-month open. However, the overall swing structure is bearish, making long positions technically less optimal.
NZD/USD Analysis [24:47]
NZD/USD is more interesting for potential shorts than AUD/USD, having taken out liquidity at a bump in the road. The speaker identifies the impulse down and looks for bumps in the road to get grabbed during retracement phases. Currently in a pullback phase with bullish internal market structure, the speaker is waiting for a fractal break to confirm a short position, targeting a new lower low.
NZD/JPY vs AUD/JPY [28:47]
NZD/JPY is compared to AUD/JPY, with the speaker preferring AUD/JPY due to its 4-hour fractal break, interaction with the yearly level, and liquidation of the initial reaction (double top). While NZD/JPY could also move lower, AUD/JPY presents a more technically sound opportunity.
GBP/JPY (GJ) Analysis [30:13]
GBP/JPY (GJ) is analysed, highlighting its similarity to USD/JPY. The market exhibits liquidity above the overall range, with equal highs. After the range high is raided, the speaker looks for a short position. A 15-minute time frame reveals a fake demand zone with a news low, expected to be taken out. The speaker identifies a bump in the road and waits for it to be taken out, followed by a fractal break to confirm the short. The speaker advises against entering the trade now, as the move has already occurred.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis [38:19]
Gold has performed a liquidity sweep this morning and is expected to continue pushing higher. The speaker advises to continue looking for gold longs, viewing every liquidation event as a buying opportunity. A 1-hour fractal break to the downside is considered a trap, not a reversal signal.
AUD/CHF Analysis [40:58]
AUD/CHF has grabbed a bump in the road. Applying the same strategy, the speaker identifies an impulsive phase to the downside and marks out liquidity points. After the bump in the road is taken and a fractal structure break occurs, the buy before the sell becomes the area of supply. The speaker waits for the free monthly level to break and turn into resistance before entering a short position.
EUR/AUD Analysis [44:20]
EUR/AUD was a pair where the speaker is happy it didn't get "screwed on". The pair had the potential to move against the analysis because of an area of demand. The speaker was cautious because it broke the liquidity low. The free monthly level acted as a natural area of resistance.
Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis [45:53]
Silver is following gold and is not a primary focus for trading. The speaker would only consider a long position near the weekly level open, targeting descending highs. A 15-minute fractal break suggests potential upside.
GBP/AUD Analysis [47:40]
GBP/AUD has been consolidative, resembling a range pair. The speaker anticipates further downside and would consider a long position from the yearly open after liquidity is grabbed beneath ascending lows. A daily fractal break back towards the highs would be a strong signal. The speaker notes a double fractal break on the 4-hour timeframe, indicating a potential short opportunity.
USD/CAD Analysis [50:00]
USD/CAD has been choppy and consolidated due to conflicting news events. The speaker is not inclined to trade it unless it swipes the low and equal lows, potentially leading to another long position. The current level is not of interest.
Final Thoughts and Pair Recommendations [51:35]
The speaker's main conviction play is AUD/JPY for a sell-off. Most other pairs have already played out. Gold presents buying opportunities on every liquidity swipe. For shorting XXX/USD pairs, NZD/USD is preferred over AUD/USD, contingent on a 4-hour fractal break after a bump in the road is taken. The speaker encourages viewers to join the Discord server for more discussions and events.