Brief Summary
Ellen May discusses the current market conditions, potential investment opportunities, and global economic factors influencing the Indonesian stock market. She covers various topics, including the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), banking stocks, CPO sector, gold mining companies, and global economic trends. She also promotes her webinars, Mtrade Start for trading and Mvest Start for investing, offering guidance for both beginners and experienced investors.
- IHSG is showing resilience at its moving average 20, with potential support around 6950.
- Banking stocks like BBCA, BBRI, and BMRI present buying opportunities, with specific support levels to watch.
- Global economic factors, including US-China relations and manufacturing data, significantly impact market sentiment.
- CPO sector benefits from India's reduced import taxes, with stocks like LSIP, AALI, and TAPG showing potential.
- Gold mining companies such as Antam, Archi, BRMS, and PESAP are experiencing revenue and profit growth.
Introduction
Ellen May introduces herself and her experience in the stock market since 2007, covering Indonesian stocks, crypto, and US stocks. She outlines the topics for the live session, including a review of the IHSG, market conditions, potential in CPO and metal stocks, US economic news related to Trump, predictions from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, and updates on India and dividend-paying stocks. She also mentions a free webinar, Mtrade Start, scheduled for June 14, 2025, aimed at teaching basic trading for stocks, crypto, and US stocks.
IHSG and Big Banks Analysis
Ellen May analyzes the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), noting its recent decline and support at the moving average 20. She identifies a minor support level at 6950, suggesting a potential correction could reach this area. She reviews big bank stocks, highlighting BCA as "very beautiful" and approaching fair valuation after recent discounts. According to her calculations, the fair value for BCA is around 8,900 or 8,850. She also discusses BBRI, noting its support at 4180, coinciding with its MA20.
Investing Principles and Bank Mandiri
Ellen May addresses whether stop losses are necessary for trading bank stocks and whether holding them for investment is viable. She emphasizes the importance of understanding a company's fundamentals and being prepared for potential drops of 10-20% when investing. She references Warren Buffett's principle of being prepared for up to a 50% drop in stock value if the company's fundamentals are strong. She introduces the concept of "margin of safety," which is the discount between the fair value and the current price, as a key factor in investment decisions. She then discusses Bank Mandiri (BMRI), noting its current position at its support level, making it a potentially attractive entry point.
Trading vs. Investing Mindsets
Ellen May emphasizes the importance of understanding the context—investing or trading—when discussing stocks or crypto. For investing, a stock's decline makes it more attractive due to better valuation. She notes that traders should have reduced positions and taken profits when the IHSG hit its MA20. She finds the current market conditions favorable for traders, allowing them to buy on weakness. She also mentions that trading big bank stocks is straightforward, with potential profits of 5-10%.
Global Macroeconomic Conditions
Ellen May discusses global macroeconomic conditions, noting that Donald Trump plans to speak with the Chinese President. She points out that both the US and Chinese economies are showing signs of contraction, as indicated by the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and China Chisin Manufacturing PMI data. She highlights that the US manufacturing sector has been contracting since February 2025, while China's manufacturing sector saw a sharp contraction in May.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Predictions
Ellen May shares predictions from Morgan Stanley, which forecasts a 9% decline in the US dollar within a year, potentially strengthening the Rupiah to 14,000. However, she notes that despite the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling by 10%, the Rupiah has only strengthened by about 4%, indicating its relative weakness. She also discusses Goldman Sachs' prediction that the US economy will have the slowest growth among G10 countries in 2025, coupled with the highest inflation rate. This is attributed to factors like import tariffs, tight financial conditions, and economic uncertainty.
Investment Diversification and CPO Sector
Ellen May advises diversifying investments beyond stocks into high-yield deposits and government bonds to prepare for potential market crashes. She then transitions to discussing the CPO sector, noting that India's reduction in CPO import taxes is a positive development for Indonesian exports. India, being a major importer of vegetable oils, will likely increase demand from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Stocks potentially impacted positively include LSIP, AALI, DSNG, SSMS, and TAPG.
CPO Stocks Technical Analysis
Ellen May provides a technical analysis of several CPO stocks. LSIP is in an uptrend and recently experienced a small breakout, but she suggests caution due to its significant rise since February. AALI is described as moving slowly but steadily in an uptrend with support around 5850. TAPG is known for its quick movements and is currently at a support level near 905, with potential for a short-term rise. DSNG is showing an early uptrend after breaking out from a downtrend line.
Gold Mining Companies Performance
Ellen May transitions to discussing the performance of gold mining companies, including Antam, Archi, BRMS, MS, MDKA, and PESAP. She shares a comparison table of their financial performance, noting that Antam's revenue increased by 203% and profit by 794% year-on-year. Archi's revenue rose by 66% and net profit by 357%. BRMS also saw significant revenue and profit increases. She highlights that MDKA's results may not be as strong due to its higher exposure to nickel, which experienced price declines.
Gold Stocks Analysis and TLKM Dividend
Ellen May provides a technical analysis of gold stocks, advising caution on chasing Antam due to its proximity to euphoria levels based on historical data. She notes that Archi has seen a significant increase but advises waiting for a retracement before trading. She mentions that Mtrade has already profited from PESAP and is waiting for it to form a flag pattern before re-entering. She concludes by discussing TLKM, noting its upcoming dividend distribution with a potential yield of 7.6% based on today's price of 2,800. She advises traders to clear their positions by June 10 due to the dividend payout.
