TLDR;
The video discusses the Indonesian stock market's reaction to recent events, including demonstrations and a tragic fatality. It covers strategies for handling market volatility, positive sentiments from Patriot Bonds and waste-to-energy regulations, and concerns about investor confidence. The video also reviews several stocks, including Toba, OASA, MHKI, UNTR, Antam, AADI, BBRI, Bumi, and Bukalapak, providing technical and fundamental analysis. It also touches on upcoming events and Q&A session.
- Market reacted to fatalities from demonstrations, but macro sentiment remains positive due to potential interest rate cuts and Patriot Bonds.
- Investor confidence is low, with foreign investors selling off banking stocks.
- Several stocks are reviewed, including those benefiting from waste-to-energy initiatives and those with strong financial reports.
Opening Remarks and Condolences [0:03]
The video begins with a somber tone, acknowledging the mourning in Indonesia due to the death of Afan Kurniawan during recent demonstrations. The speaker expresses deep sadness and emphasizes the importance of this event as a reminder for elected officials to care about Indonesia. Despite the stock exchange's initial lack of response to the demonstrations, the market eventually reacted negatively following the fatalities. The speaker prays for Indonesia's betterment and strength for the victim's family, acknowledging the government and Go Indonesia's compensation efforts, which, while helpful, cannot replace the loss of life.
Market Sentiment and Handling Volatility [1:12]
The speaker addresses concerns about market volatility, advising viewers not to be overly afraid of external factors affecting stock prices. She emphasizes the importance of having a solid trading plan and money management strategy, using only risk capital. Positive market sentiments include potential interest rate cuts, Danantara's Patriot Bonds, and new waste-to-energy regulations. The speaker expresses concern about Indonesia's current state, noting that foreign investors are selling off banking stocks despite their previous rise, indicating a crisis of confidence.
US Inflation Data and Patriot Bonds [7:50]
The discussion shifts to US inflation data, which remains steady and in line with market expectations, supporting potential future interest rate cuts. CPI inflation focuses on consumer prices, while PCE inflation has a broader scope, including consumer spending paid by third parties. The speaker then transitions to discussing Patriot Bonds and waste-to-energy initiatives, mentioning Governor Chris Waller's intention to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential for further reductions through 2026.
Waste-to-Energy Issuers: Toba, OASA, MHKI, and SG [10:24]
The speaker discusses several issuers related to waste-to-energy projects, starting with Danantara's Patriot Bonds, which offer a 2% coupon for impact investment in environmentally friendly energy projects. Toba is mentioned briefly with a technical analysis indicating potential retracement. OASA (Maha Raksa Biru Energi Tbk) is highlighted for its waste management consulting services and its construction of a waste-to-energy power plant in East Jakarta, targeted for operation in 2026. MHKI (Multihana Kreasindo Tbk) is also mentioned as a beneficiary of the Waste to Energy policy, with 64% of its revenue coming from waste processing and utilization. SG (Sumber Global Energy Tbk) is developing a WTE project in West Java, processing waste into refuse-derived fuel (RDF) for public cement fuel.
UNTR and Antam Analysis [16:17]
UNTR (United Tractors) is identified as benefiting from waste-to-energy through its subsidiary EPN (Energia Prima Nusantara), which is involved in a project in Legok Nangka. Antam's financial report for the first half of 2025 is discussed, showing a significant increase in revenue and net profit, driven by rising gold prices and increased sales in various segments. The speaker notes that Antam's performance is strong, with revenue up 154.5% year-on-year and net profit up 202.9%.
AADI and UNTR Fundamentals [20:58]
AADI's revenue fell 9.7% annually, and its net profit also fell 50% annually due to a decline in coal sales. Despite this, there's anticipation for increased demand during the winter. The speaker revisits United Tractor (UNTR), noting its sales guidance volume for 2025 has been revised down due to bad weather affecting mining activities. UNTR's diversification into gold and nickel provides a buffer compared to AADI, which is more heavily reliant on coal.
BBRI and Crypto Debit Card [24:23]
BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia) is discussed in light of the launch of Indonesia's first crypto debit card. This card, in collaboration with Indodax, allows users to access up to 12 different currencies and use either rupiah or crypto as a source of funds. The speaker views this as an extraordinary innovation but is uncertain about its potential impact on BRI.
Bumi and Bukalapak: Black Rock's Investments [26:03]
Black Rock has increased its accumulation in Bumi from 1.5 billion to 1.96 billion and in Bukalapak from 1.11 billion to 1.17 billion. Black Rock sees potential in Bumi due to the support of the Salim Group and the relevance of coal for transitional energy. For Bukalapak, Black Rock believes in the fundamentals of its business and ecosystem, including user data, local e-commerce opportunities, gaming business, fintech integration, and exposure to the digital economy.
Bukalapak and PESAP Analysis [28:09]
Bukalapak is undergoing a normal retracement, with Mtrade having already sold its position for a 17% profit. The speaker plans to monitor the stock for a potential retracement around the 163-165 level. PESAP is discussed, highlighting its focus on mining exploration and gold processing, with mining locations in North Sulawesi, Kalimantan, and abroad. The company supplies gold bullion to Antam and has benefited from the increase in gold prices.
Q&A and Market Outlook [33:34]
The speaker addresses several questions from viewers, including whether to hold BCA for long-term investing and the outlook for the Monday market given the demo conditions. She advises caution in the coming week, suggesting investors adjust their money management until conditions become more conducive. The speaker also promotes upcoming events, including a Tastik cuan event and a Made Start Basic Trading Mastery session.