Brief Summary
This YouTube video by Ellen May discusses the current state of the Indonesian stock market (IHSG), provides analysis on trending stocks, and offers insights into trading strategies. It covers specific stocks like TLKM, HMSP, ADRO, BRMS, ENRG, DEWA, LSIP, PTBA, ANTM, and others, along with commentary on market events and trading tips. Key points include the importance of understanding market stages, dividend investing, and the influence of big investors on stock trends.
- IHSG's resistance level and market stage
- Analysis of dividend-related stock drops (TLKM, HMSP, ADRO)
- Discussion of Bakrie Group stocks (BRMS, ENRG, DEWA)
- Insights into CPO sector and mining stocks (LSIP, PTBA, ANTM)
- Trading strategies and risk management
IHSG Resistance and Market Stages
The IHSG is currently facing strong resistance at 7222. If it fails to break out and moves sideways, it may enter stage 3, the distribution phase. However, many stocks are still at the beginning of stage 2 or about to break out, indicating varied opportunities. The green line of the IHSG is a determining factor: going above 7222-7233 means continuing the uptrend (stage 2), while dropping below signals stage 3.
TLKM and HMSP Dividend Analysis
TLKM's stock price decreased due to dividend distribution, which is normal. The dividend yield was around 4-5%, and the stock hit strong support at the 200 moving average. While TLKM has no fundamental problems, concerns remain about its investment in Goto. Investors can hold if the valuation is still okay, while traders can buy on weakness, knowing when the uptrend ends. HMSP also experienced a significant drop due to XD dividends, with a dividend yield of around 8%. Such drops are normal, and dividend investors should buy when the stock is at the bottom, not at its peak.
ADRO Dividend Strategy and Mtrade
ADRO is set to have a dividend calculation day on June 12. Mtrade medium-term trades still have a profit of 7-8%. If ADRO falls 7.61% from the last price, it will be around 1950, a breakeven point. Mtrade is likely to take profits tomorrow and will notify members in real time.
Bakrie Group Stocks: BRMS, Bumi, ENRG
The Bakrie Group, including BRMS, Bumi, and ENRG, is discussed. BRMS was reviewed as a buy on Mtrade a few days ago. The analysis is based on super trader knowledge taught at Mtrade Academy.
US-China Trade Relations and Impact
The US and China have agreed to create a framework to reduce trade tensions, positively impacting the market. The focus is on smoothening the export and import of rare earth and magnets. If approved, America will reduce the export ban on chip technology and chemicals. However, no further meetings are scheduled yet, and the tug-of-war continues over export permits and visa restrictions.
US Economic News and Inflation
Donald Trump wants to replace the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, with candidates like Scott Bason and Kevin Wors. However, the law protects the Fed chairman from political intervention. US inflation data rose slightly from 2.3% to 2.4%, which is less favorable as Powell aims to lower interest rates to 2%.
BRMS Analysis and Trading Strategy
BRMS was reviewed as a buy on Mtrade on June 4, 2025, with a max buy around 406. Mtrade is still holding BRMS for the medium term, with a profit of 19-22%. In the short term, profits were taken yesterday at 7-10% due to a tail pattern. If the red line on the chart is not broken upwards, BRMS may return sideways. The medium-term strategy involves holding for several months, potentially up to a year.
PGEO Dividend and Medium-Term Hold
PGEO is another medium-term hold with a profit of 36-38%. It will distribute dividends with a yield of 3.97% on June 13. The trend is still okay for the medium term, and the stock may be reviewed for sale or bought for swing trading if it falls due to XD.
BRMS Fundamentals and Accumulation Pattern
BRMS aims to produce gold of Rp70,000 to 75,000 ounces in 2025, increasing from 64,900 in 2024. In 2028-2029, it plans to start production from an underground mine in Palu. The company's income increased by 212% annually, and net profit rose 304%. The accumulation pattern in Mtrade explains why the chart can be trusted, reflecting market activities and big investors' moves.
ENRG Analysis and Government Regulations
ENRG is in the middle of stage 2, making it interesting for short-term trading. Mtrade entered this stock on June 4, 2025, and is currently in a profitable position. The government is revising taxation for the gross split oil and gas contract, which could benefit ENRG by reducing operational costs and increasing profits.
DEWA Stock Analysis and Potential
DEWA is similar to ENRG, having broken out from its big sideways since 150. It has transitioned from a subcontractor to working on its own projects, potentially increasing its margin fourfold. DEWA's EBITDA is predicted to grow 43% per year, and its net profit will increase 216% per year until 2028.
CPO Sector and LSIP Analysis
India has cut import taxes on CPO, which can increase the price of CPO due to increased demand. LSIP is up today but just hold it from Rad, it's been reviewed by from 1255 or 1260.
DSNG and PTBA Analysis
DSNG is just at the beginning of its trend, potentially offering more upside compared to LSIP. PTBA just broke out yesterday and should be held. PTBA, Antam, and Timah will hold an annual general meeting of shareholders tomorrow, June 12, 2025. PTBA is known for distributing generous dividends, with an average payout ratio above 60%.
Antam and Timah Analysis
Antam is being watched for a correction before buying, with a potential dividend yield of 4.6%. PT Timah had a nice breakout a few days ago but has since gone back down to sideways. There is a possibility of cutting losses on Timah.
BTPS and Adikarya Analysis
BTPS has a breakout today due to a buyback. For the construction sector, PTPP is more interesting than Adikarya, but Adikarya has more retracement discounts.
Stock Checks and Market Commentary
Various stocks are checked based on viewer requests, including Fore, Cleo, Bumi, PTPP, BBYB, BRMS, Adi, Raja, Breis, Queen, TWR, WBCA, Toba, MBMA, SMRA, TLKM, BBRI, WG, Petro, Saratoga, Aces, and Miss Indie. The analysis includes short-term holds, sideways trends, and potential retracements.
