TLDR;
This YouTube video by Ellen May recaps recent market events, discusses the impact of demonstrations and global economic factors on the Indonesian stock market, and provides insights into specific stocks, particularly in the banking and gold sectors. It emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics, considering both domestic and international influences, and making informed investment decisions.
- Impact of demonstrations and global economic factors on the Indonesian stock market
- Insights into specific stocks, particularly in the banking and gold sectors
- Importance of understanding market dynamics and making informed investment decisions
Market Recap and Impact of Demonstrations [0:03]
The video starts with a recap of the past weekend's events, including demonstrations and speculation in the market. The demonstrations involved anarchic acts, looting, and burning of buildings, leading to theories about foreign exploitation, power struggles, and corruptors being the cause. Despite these events, the market wasn't significantly disrupted until a victim, Mas Afan, died, which intensified the situation. The market initially went down but then bounced back.
IHSG and Big Banks Analysis [3:06]
The video analyzes the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), noting a breakdown gap down that was followed by a reflection driven by Big Banks shares. BCA shares fell to 7,600, still above the support area of 7,400, and returned to standard deviation -1. The speaker refers to a past event with Mr. Sandiaga Uno at IDX, mentioning that peak market conditions often present opportunities for institutions to enter. BCA is used as a reflection of big investor psychology, with foreigners net selling 1.6 trillion in BCA shares.
BCA Valuation and Historical Comparison [7:49]
The discussion shifts to BCA's valuation compared to historical figures, emphasizing that BCA's valuation should be compared with its own history rather than other banks. The standard deviation of -2 was touched on April 8th at around 7,400. The speaker advises against going all in due to opportunities in other stocks and the importance of cash in uncertain times. Political uncertainty has multiplied since the change of leadership in Indonesia and America.
Market Sentiments and BCA's Potential [12:45]
The video addresses whether BCA's score will rise straight away if it hits 73 or 74, noting that the stock market moves due to various sentiments coming together. BCA had two negative sentiments: economists discussing BLBI and the recent demonstrations. Without these, BCA would have reached the 9,000 level. The speaker points out that BCA's recent rise has been sluggish due to these sentiments, presenting both a challenge and an opportunity.
BCA's Historical Valuation and Future Trends [16:03]
The discussion continues with BCA's historical valuation, noting that it hit a standard deviation of minus 2 during the pandemic in 2021 and 2020. The standard deviation of -2 in 2020 was at 4,700, while now it is at 7,300, indicating an upward trend in the long term. The speaker suggests that the standard of cheapness is different now, and the average valuation changes over time.
Factors Driving Market Bounce [22:16]
The video explores why the market is bouncing despite the recent demonstrations, attributing it to the anticipation of the Federal Reserve (The Fed) lowering interest rates. A combo in September is expected, with Bank Indonesia and The Fed likely to lower interest rates. Lowering interest rates encourages borrowing, reduces the burden on companies, and motivates people to invest in more profitable assets like stocks and bonds.
Economic Data and Market Impact [27:53]
The discussion covers Indonesian economic data, including GDP growth of 5.12% and an increase in the Indonesian Manufacturing PMI. The speaker expresses confusion about the data's accuracy but remains cautiously optimistic. Indonesian inflation is quite flat, with monthly inflation showing deflation, which could encourage BI to lower interest rates. Indonesia's trade balance rose 1.7% annually, with exports exceeding imports, potentially strengthening the rupiah.
Gold Price Analysis and Trump's Tariffs [32:54]
The video analyzes the price of gold, noting a sharp rise due to global economic uncertainty. A federal court declared Trump's tariffs illegal, but they remain in effect until October 14, 2025. The speaker marks important dates, including the potential interest rate cut on September 17-18 and the uncertain date of October 14. The dismissal of Governor The Fat Lisa Cook is also discussed as a factor influencing the market.
Gold Stocks and Issuer Analysis [37:00]
The discussion focuses on gold stocks, with Antam (ANTM) being a primary example. Antam's income from gold is 81%, and it experienced a breakout with high transaction volume. The speaker also mentions other gold issuers like Pesat, Arci, BRMS, Indie, Dewa, and Cuan. The cost of gold production is around $1533 per ounce, and if gold breaks out from $3500, it would be a significant breakout.
Stock Recommendations and Mtrade Promotion [39:29]
The speaker refrains from giving specific stock recommendations on the live stream, emphasizing the importance of understanding the science behind trading. A promotion for Mtrade is mentioned, with a discount available for those who join the Mtrade Start event on September 6th. The speaker encourages viewers to DM Mtrade Start to get the registration link.
Individual Stock Analysis and Market Insights [44:23]
The video includes a Q&A segment where the speaker analyzes various stocks, including ADMR, ADRO, Harum, MDKA, PGEO, BBRI, and others. The analysis includes insights on support levels, retracement, and potential entry points. The speaker also discusses waste-to-energy stocks like Toba, OASA, and MHKI, providing cautionary notes and best price points.
Service and Closing Remarks [51:23]
The speaker explains the purpose of the daily live streams as a field of service to help people and positively impact Indonesia. Viewers are encouraged to join the morning briefing for more detailed discussions on trading plans and watch lists. The speaker concludes by praying for Indonesia's safety and for wisdom and health for its leaders.
US Stocks Discussion [52:45]
The video briefly touches on US stocks, including Garmin, and provides a watch list for breakout plays. The speaker mentions potential retracement levels for US stocks and discusses the impact of Trump's policies on the market. The video concludes with a reminder to join the morning briefing for more detailed discussions and a plan to discuss US stocks more thoroughly in the future.