Brief Summary
This YouTube video by Ellen May discusses the current state of the Indonesian stock market (IHSG), factors influencing it such as Donald Trump's tariffs and the end of reciprocal tariffs, and the performance of big bank stocks. It also touches on trading strategies, the importance of money management, and updates on Indonesian economic data, including inflation, trade balance, and manufacturing data. The video also covers commodity stocks, renewable energy, and provides insights into crypto and US stocks.
- IHSG's medium-term uptrend remains intact, but short-term downtrends and potential retracements should be considered.
- Banking stocks are experiencing profit-taking, influenced by the end of reciprocal tariffs and anticipation of interest rate cuts.
- Indonesian economic data presents a mixed picture, with a strong trade balance but a slowing manufacturing sector.
IHSG and Market Overview
The speaker addresses concerns about the IHSG's recent performance, clarifying that despite daily fluctuations, it has seen a 22% increase since April 8. The current decline is a correction from its peak, finding support at the MA50 level. While the short-term trend indicates a downtrend since June 18, the medium-term trend remains upward unless it breaks the 6782 support level. A drop to 6780 would be a normal correction after the previous rise.
Factors Influencing Market
The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market fluctuations, especially during periods of uncertainty like Donald Trump's presidency. Maintaining cash reserves and using efficient investment systems are crucial. Retracements, defined as temporary declines in an uptrend, present opportunities for value investing or trading. The speaker cautions against certainty and stresses the importance of money management and stop-loss strategies.
Big Banks Performance
The recent decline in big bank stocks is attributed to profit-taking after significant gains and concerns about the end of reciprocal tariffs on July 9. While the medium-term trend for BCA is downward due to breaking the MA50, valuations are becoming more attractive. The speaker suggests that buying opportunities may arise, but cautions against going all in. The potential for these stocks to reach all-time highs depends on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Big Banks Performance Comparison
Comparing the performance of big banks (BCA, BNI, BRI, and BMRI) over five months in 2025 against the same period in 2024, BCA shows the most solid growth, aligning with net profit growth guidance. The speaker advises being happy when BCA's stock declines, provided one has available funds. The importance of controlling desires and avoiding all-in investments is highlighted to maintain effective money management.
Loan Growth and Financial Metrics
BMRI shows a high loan growth rate, but it's important to consider profits and the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR). A smaller LDR indicates higher liquidity and safety. BMRI's LDR is relatively high compared to BBRI. Third-party funds are highest for BMRI, driven by an increase in savings. While BMRI's financial report growth is not as high as expected, it remains second to BCA.
Indonesian Economic Data
Indonesian economic data for June 2025 reveals that annual inflation rose by 1.87%, while core inflation fell by 2.37%. The trade balance has increased significantly due to higher exports compared to imports, indicating strength in foreign trade. However, manufacturing data for June 2025 is not positive, with the sector experiencing a slowdown and remaining in a contraction phase.
Commodity Sector and Metal Stocks
Commodity sector stocks behave differently due to geopolitical conditions affecting oil, gas, and coal prices. The inauguration of a nickel battery electric vehicle project impacts the metals sector, with potential stocks including Antam, Inco, Tins, MDKA, and MJKL. New renewable energy-based power plants also present opportunities, such as PGEO.
PGEO and ESSA Stock Analysis
PGEO stock is considered beautiful with a positive price and volume pattern, supported by a 2T fund injection from Danantara. However, there's a potential head and shoulders pattern forming, with a breakdown from 1300 potentially leading to 1175. ESSA stock has broken down from 640 but is holding at the 560 support with low transaction volume. The speaker advises objective cut-loss strategies for trading ESSA.
Commodity Stocks and Toba
Commodity stocks are expected to trade sideways in the coming days, with potential for a reversal based on oil price sentiment. Stop-loss measures and avoiding all-in investments are crucial. Toba has officially exited the fossil business, focusing on new renewable energy and obtaining a permit to export electricity to Singapore. This shift is expected to increase Toba's stock valuation in the future.
Crypto, US Stocks, and Disclaimer
The speaker encourages following Cryptofolio for crypto updates, highlighting Ethereum as an investment magnet. Learning about crypto and US stocks expands market opportunities. The speaker provides a disclaimer, stating they are not involved in the internal management of companies mentioned and are not responsible for technical problems with applications.
