TLDR;
This video discusses a shift in sentiment from a well-known optimist, Nick Ghioli, regarding the US stock market. It explores reasons for this caution, including the overheating of the market as indicated by the resurgence of SPACs and the high Price-to-Sales Ratio (PSR) of the S&P 500. The video advises caution and diversification into bonds, without advocating for a complete exit from the stock market.
- Nick Ghioli, known for his optimistic "Just Keep Buying" strategy, has turned cautious on US stocks for the second time since 2017.
- The S&P 500's PSR is near levels seen during the Dot-com bubble, signaling potential overvaluation.
- Diversification into bonds (around 20%) is suggested as a prudent measure, while still maintaining a significant allocation to stocks (80%).
Intro [0:00]
The intro highlights the speaker's perspective on market commentary, noting skepticism towards consistently negative predictions and increased concern when staunch optimists express caution. The speaker references Nick Ghioli, known for his "Just Keep Buying" philosophy, who has recently turned bearish on US stocks for only the second time since 2017. The previous instance was followed by a significant market downturn.
낙관론자 vs 비관론자 [0:35]
This chapter contrasts optimistic and pessimistic voices in the stock market, mentioning figures like Dr. Nouriel Roubini, who is known for predicting financial crises. While acknowledging the validity of pessimistic viewpoints, the speaker points out that stock markets tend to rise despite negative economic events. The chapter also introduces Nick Ghioli, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and his "Just Keep Buying" approach, which advocates for consistent investment in stocks, particularly US stocks and the S&P 500.
내가 미국주식에 비관적인 이유 3가지 [2:24]
The speaker outlines the reasons for Nick Ghioli's shift to a more cautious stance. The resurgence of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) and their subsequent decline is seen as a sign of speculative excess. The primary concern is the high Price-to-Sales Ratio (PSR) of the S&P 500, which is approaching levels seen during the Dot-com bubble. Ghioli has adjusted his retirement account to include 20% bonds, a shift from his previous 100% allocation to risky assets, indicating a more conservative approach.
S&P500 PSR [5:05]
This section explains the Price-to-Sales Ratio (PSR) as an indicator of how expensive or cheap a stock is relative to its total sales. PSR is calculated by dividing a company's market capitalization by its total revenue over a 12-month period. Unlike the Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER), which is based on net profit, PSR uses sales, making it useful for evaluating growth stocks and companies that may not yet be profitable. The S&P 500's PSR reached 3.42 just before the Dot-com bubble and currently stands at 3.2, signaling a potential overvaluation. Historically, sharp increases in PSR have been followed by financial crises.
정리 [7:45]
The speaker summarizes the video's main points: Nick Ghioli, a long-time optimist, has adopted a more cautious outlook due to market overheating, as evidenced by the SPAC boom and the high PSR of the S&P 500. While not advocating for selling all stocks, the speaker suggests being cautious and diversifying into bonds. The speaker also notes the lack of interest in medium-term bonds and plans to discuss them in a future video, mentioning the VGIT ETF as a representative example with a dividend yield of around 3.8%.