TLDR;
This speech addresses the current state of international relations, characterized by great power rivalry and a weakening rules-based order. It draws inspiration from Vaslav Havel's "The Power of the Powerless," urging countries to stop participating in rituals they know to be false and to live in truth by naming reality and acting consistently. The speech emphasizes the need for middle powers like Canada to adapt to the new reality by building strategic autonomy, diversifying relationships, and forming coalitions based on shared values and interests. It advocates for value-based realism, combining principled commitments with pragmatic engagement, and highlights Canada's strengths and its determination to build a stronger, more just world through cooperation.
- The international rules-based order is fading, and great power rivalry is intensifying.
- Countries should stop "living within a lie" and start naming reality.
- Middle powers need to build strategic autonomy and diversify relationships.
- Canada is pursuing a strategy of value-based realism, combining principles with pragmatism.
- Cooperation and coalition-building are essential for creating a better world.
The Illusion of Rules-Based Order [0:00]
The speaker begins by highlighting the prevailing narrative of great power rivalry and the decline of the rules-based international order, echoing Thucydides's assertion that the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must. This logic often leads countries to comply and accommodate in hopes of ensuring their safety, but the speaker argues that compliance is not a viable solution. Drawing inspiration from Vaslav Havel's essay "The Power of the Powerless," the speaker introduces the concept of "living within a lie," where individuals and countries participate in rituals they know to be false to avoid trouble and signal compliance, thereby perpetuating the system.
The Cracks in the System [2:04]
The speaker asserts that it is time for countries and companies to take their signs down and stop participating in the charade. Countries like Canada have prospered under the rules-based international order, joining its institutions and praising its principles, but they were also aware of its shortcomings, such as the strongest nations exempting themselves when convenient and the asymmetrical enforcement of trade rules. Despite these flaws, the system was useful, with American hegemony providing public goods like open sea lanes and a stable financial system. However, this bargain no longer works, as a rupture is occurring, not just a transition.
The Rise of Strategic Autonomy [3:35]
Over the past two decades, crises in finance, health, energy, and geopolitics have exposed the risks of extreme global integration. Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, employing tariffs, financial infrastructure, and supply chains for coercion. The speaker argues that countries cannot continue to live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when it becomes a source of subordination. As a result, many countries are seeking greater strategic autonomy in energy, food, critical minerals, and finance. While this impulse is understandable, a world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile, and less sustainable.
Value-Based Realism [6:00]
The speaker notes that Canada was among the first to recognize the need for a strategic shift, adopting what Alexander Stubb calls value-based realism, which combines principled commitments with pragmatic engagement. This approach involves being principled in upholding sovereignty, territorial integrity, the prohibition of force, and respect for human rights, while also being pragmatic in recognizing incremental progress and diverging interests. Canada is calibrating its relationships to reflect its values and prioritizing broad engagement to maximize its influence in a fluid world.
Canada's Strengths and Actions [7:55]
Canada is building its strength at home by cutting taxes, removing barriers to interprovincial trade, and fast-tracking investments in energy, AI, critical minerals, and trade corridors. The country is also doubling its defense spending and diversifying abroad through strategic partnerships with the EU, China, Qatar, and others. To solve global problems, Canada is pursuing variable geometry, forming different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests. This includes supporting Ukraine, securing the Arctic, and championing plurilateral trade and cooperation on critical minerals and AI.
The Power of Middle Powers [11:00]
The speaker argues that middle powers must act together because they are on the menu if they are not at the table. Unlike great powers that can afford to go it alone, middle powers negotiate from weakness when dealing bilaterally with a hegemon. In a world of great power rivalry, these countries have a choice: compete for favor or combine to create a third path with impact. The speaker emphasizes that the power of legitimacy, integrity, and rules will remain strong if wielded together.
Living the Truth [12:25]
The speaker concludes by returning to Havel's concept of living the truth, which for middle powers means naming reality, acting consistently, building what they claim to believe in, and reducing the leverage that enables coercion. Canada has what the world wants, including energy resources, critical minerals, an educated population, and immense fiscal capacity. The country is a stable and reliable partner with a recognition of what's happening and a determination to act accordingly. By taking the sign out of the window and building something bigger, better, stronger, and more just, Canada is charting a path that is open to any country willing to join.
