TLDR;
Sabine Hossenfelder discusses the unexpected surge in quantum computing hype, despite her previous predictions of its decline. She highlights claims of mass-producible quantum computers by companies like Quantum Mission, Sai Quantum, and Fujitsu, while pointing out the discrepancy between these claims and the practical limitations of current technology, particularly regarding cooling and error rates. The hype is possibly fueled by government investments, military interests, and a lack of clarity from scientists, leading to inflated stock values and misleading headlines about quantum computing applications.
- Quantum computing hype is increasing, contrary to previous predictions.
- Companies claim mass production capabilities, but face technical challenges like cooling and error rates.
- Government investment and military interest may be driving the hype.
- Misleading headlines exaggerate the current capabilities of quantum computers.
Quantum Computing Hype Defies Expectations [0:00]
Sabine Hossenfelder admits she was wrong about her prediction that quantum computing hype would falter in 2024. Instead, there's been an increase in claims and investments in the field. She expresses confusion and aims to explain her pessimism about quantum computing and the recent developments that defy reason.
Claims of Mass Production and Scalability [0:45]
Several companies are now claiming they are ready to mass-produce quantum computers. Quantum Mission, a UK company, asserts they have the first full-stack, scalable quantum computer ready for mass production, featuring hardware, software, and a user interface using superconducting circuits, aiming for a million cubits. Sai Quantum, which uses photons as cubits, announced plans to build a factory last year, and China is also constructing a quantum computer factory. Fujitsu unexpectedly announced they can build a quantum computer with 250 logical cubits.
The Reality Behind the Headlines [1:57]
Despite the marketing claims, there's a disconnect between press releases and reality. Superconducting circuits are the most understood approach, used by IBM, Google, and Amazon, with manipulation and readout of cubits achieved with high precision and low error up to around 100 cubits. A significant challenge is cooling the cubits, which operate at millikelvin temperatures. The heat produced by manipulating more cubits limits the number that can be placed in a single cooling device. Scaling up requires connecting multiple cooling systems, which increases the error rate. The core issue is producing devices that function effectively, not just mass-producing the cubits themselves.
Quantum Computing Stocks and Investments [4:03]
Quantum computing companies like INQ, Reetti, and D-Wave have seen significant stock gains, and BlackRock wants to offer a quantum computing ETF. This excitement is partly due to government investments from the US and JP Morgan. However, many headlines exaggerate the capabilities of quantum computers, such as IBM's claim of quantum-enabled algorithmic trading, which, according to computer scientist Scott Aronson, is fundamentally flawed. There are constant claims of quantum computers aiding in various tasks, but none of these companies are profitable.
Possible Explanations for the Hype [5:19]
One explanation for the hype is a highly confidential technological breakthrough. Another possibility is that the excitement is fueled by government investment, particularly from the US military, driven by concerns that China will surpass them in quantum technology. Scientists may also contribute to the hype by not dispelling misconceptions about quantum computers. Despite the issues, quantum computing hype is not faltering, ensuring Hossenfelder continues to critique the field.
Ground News Advertisement [6:00]
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