TLDR;
This YouTube video provides a market update, focusing on potential trading opportunities amidst current market conditions. It highlights the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact, reviews the performance of major indices and MAG 7 stocks, and identifies several individual tickers with promising setups. The video emphasizes the importance of being selective and strategic in the current choppy market, suggesting specific levels and potential moves for various stocks.
- The video highlights the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on the market.
- It reviews the performance of major indices and MAG 7 stocks, providing insights into their current state and potential future movements.
- The video identifies several individual tickers with promising setups, offering specific levels and potential moves for each.
Intro and Market Overview [0:00]
The presenter notes that the market has been choppy, with intraday trading being mostly flat leading up to the FOMC meeting. Despite the lack of clear direction, the structure on lower time frames doesn't appear bearish, with higher lows and higher highs being formed. The presenter mentions that SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA all sold off the 9 EMA, while QQQ rejected the 21 EMA.
VIX/SPX Stat and Monthly MACD [0:56]
The presenter revisits a VIX/SPX stat, noting that historically, this signal has preceded a 4.8% move up in the SPY over the next two weeks, with at least a 2.5% move up off of that low. However, the monthly MACD looks bearish, suggesting a potential crash. The presenter advises caution and suggests considering a risk-off approach if the expected bounce occurs.
Cloud Indicator and Market Sentiment [3:51]
The presenter discusses a cloud indicator (5, 9, and 21 EMAs) and how its flips often coincide with impulsive moves. Despite the bearish MACD, the VIX stat suggests potential upside. The presenter acknowledges the conflicting signals and emphasizes the importance of being aware of both possibilities.
FOMC and Potential Catalysts [8:36]
The presenter anticipates no rate change at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which could lead to a "nothing burger" scenario. The focus will be on Jerome Powell's commentary and any new fears or easing of existing fears. The presenter also notes the potential for inflation spikes in future CPI or PPI reports, driven by rising oil prices.
MAG 7 Stock Analysis [10:53]
The presenter reviews the MAG 7 stocks, noting mixed signals. Apple has the 200 DMA below, Meta looks weak but is at a potential turning point, and Microsoft's weekly RSI is oversold. Nvidia is in a range, Tesla is showing strength, Amazon looks like it wants to move up in the short term but has a bare flag, and Google looks good and is holding the weekly 21 EMA.
Individual Stock Picks - Rocket Lab and Space Theme [16:17]
The presenter discusses Rocket Lab's offering of $1 billion, noting that the after-hours sell-off is likely overdone and the stock is likely to be bought up. The presenter also points out the return of speculative capital to the space theme, highlighting AS and Sidu as potential movers.
Individual Stock Picks - PLTR, GEV, and BE [18:58]
The presenter identifies PLTR as coiled up against the daily 9 EMA, anticipating a breakout if the market moves up. GEV is breaking out above a downtrend line, with potential targets at 86861 and 89493. BE, an energy name, has been consolidating for two months and looks ready for a move up.
Individual Stock Picks - Coinbase [24:34]
Coinbase is consolidating after an initial move up, mirroring previous patterns. The presenter anticipates a big move next week, potentially a 10-20x return. The presenter notes the possibility of a false breakout before the actual move.
Individual Stock Picks - PF, ENBiz [27:10]
PF is starting to wake up after multiple ticker requests, with a potential breakout over 2794. ENBiz had a dilution announcement after a successful run. The presenter expects a pullback to 11050 and a range between 110 and 130, looking to buy the bottom of this range.
Individual Stock Picks - SNDK and Lemonade [31:51]
SNDK is a sympathy play for MU earnings, with significant call buying activity. The presenter notes a similar setup previously led to a 20% move. Lemonade hit the presenter's targets after a breakout, but the presenter advises against chasing the move, expecting consolidation around the weekly 21 EMA.
Individual Stock Picks - Iron, Wolf, and ONODS [35:15]
Iron is shaping up for a decision, with a potential move up if it bounces off the 21 EMA and breaks over 4719. Wolf is another data center stock that looks ready for a monster move. ONODS has consolidation and potential for a breakout over 1242, but the presenter warns of its tendency to be a "trickster."
Individual Stock Picks - KTOS, ALB, and IBM [38:02]
KTOS is starting to move up, with a daily cloud flip and a potential breakout above 9710. ALB is breaking retesting up 15354, expecting a move back up to 200 bucks. IBM is looking juicy, anticipating a breakout over 26038 and a test of the weekly 90A at 265.
Top Watches and Market Summary [43:36]
The presenter's top watches for tomorrow include Rocket Lab, ASDS, Palantir, SNDK, IBM and KTOS. The presenter emphasizes the choppiness of the current market and the importance of focusing on individual tickers rather than SPY. The presenter notes that the market is frustrating and messy, but eventually it will move. The presenter encourages viewers to join his trading community.
