TLDR;
This paper explores the historical roots of climate change attitudes in the United States, focusing on the impact of long-term fossil fuel extraction on present-day beliefs. It argues that a history of fossil fuel extraction creates "economic identities" or cultural attachments to the resource, which significantly influence attitudes towards climate change. The study uses data on oil and gas wells drilled since the 1860s and survey data to demonstrate a causal relationship between historical extraction and current climate change beliefs, even when controlling for present-day exposure and other factors. The research also investigates how the provision of public goods by the oil industry fosters these identities and shapes beliefs.
- Strong causal relationship between a history of extraction and present day beliefs in climate change.
- Cultural attachments to the resource significantly influence attitudes towards climate change.
- Public goods provided by the oil industry fosters these identities and shapes beliefs.
Introduction: Economic Identities and Climate Change Attitudes [0:00]
The presenter discusses the motivation behind the paper, which is to understand why a significant portion of Americans do not believe in climate change despite increasing awareness of the issue. Current research struggles to explain this, as climatic events have short-lived effects on attitudes, and partisanship alone doesn't account for the variation in beliefs. The paper shifts focus from climate change itself to the use of fossil fuels, which are deeply ingrained in communities built around their production. The US has a long history of fossil fuel extraction, with about three-quarters of US counties having oil and gas wells. The industry has had major economic and cultural impacts, creating "economic identities" or cultural attachments to oil. The central question is whether long-run histories of fossil fuel extraction and associated cultural attachments impact present-day beliefs about climate.
Research Approach: Establishing a Causal Relationship [3:26]
The presenter outlines a three-step approach to demonstrate the relationship between historical extraction and climate change beliefs. First, the research aims to show a strong causal link between a history of extraction and present-day beliefs, controlling for present-day exposure to the resource and other factors like ideology and selection into those areas. This involves using data on virtually all oil and gas wells drilled in the US since the 1860s. Second, the study examines how these places are different, focusing on the argument of fossil fuel identities. This is documented using archival data to understand why these identities arise, particularly through the public good provision by firms and the industry. Finally, the research seeks to show that variation in where these identities develop within highly extractive places is tied to the variation in beliefs today.
Addressing Concerns and Literature Review [5:41]
The presenter addresses questions about the generalizability of the findings to other industries and the distinction between beliefs and attitudes. The presenter acknowledges that other industries, such as meat, car, and aviation, could also develop attachments. The paper contributes to the literature on climate change beliefs and introduces an explanation centered around economic identities, which has been overlooked in economic literature compared to sociological studies of national and religious identities. Attachment to a local industry impacts various behaviors and beliefs, making this a specific case with general applications. The presenter clarifies that the paper leans towards studying attitudes rather than strictly defined beliefs, as disentangling the layers of belief is challenging.
Historical Context and Data [15:56]
The presenter provides background on the US oil and gas industry, highlighting its large and accessible endowment and the private ownership of subsurface minerals. This private ownership led to widespread private exploration. The "law of capture" further incentivized extraction, as any resource extracted from the ground is owned by the extractor. The data used primarily relies on well data due to its comprehensive historical coverage, supplemented with present-day local prediction environment data. The main survey used is the CES, which includes questions about climate change between 2006 and 2012 and covers a large sample of counties. The presenter also shows that at the county level, those beliefs correlate with behaviors such as buying fewer electric vehicles and less support for green initiatives.
Variation and Controls [20:15]
The presenter explains the variation used in the study, focusing on the cross-county variation in the length of exposure to oil extraction. The uncertainty of drilling, indicated by whether a well is successful or not, is also considered. A third of drilled wells were unsuccessful, and 173 counties have been drilled unsuccessfully, serving as a control. The length of extraction post-drilling is also quite random. The presenter addresses questions about potential issues with well placement, noting that the study controls for successful counties. The map shows the distribution of successful and unsuccessful wells, with the gray areas representing control and successful counties, and the dark areas representing those with oil and gas. The presenter also uses state fixed effects to compare counties within the same state and similar levels of present-day exposure.
Results: Impact of Historical Oil Extraction [26:43]
The presenter discusses the baseline results, indicating that one standard deviation in the number of decades of exploration decreases the probability of believing in climate change by 7 percentage points. This county-level variable has a substantial impact, comparable to the variation in a county's share of votes for Republicans. The presenter adds present-day county controls, including partisanship, education, income, and industry share, and finds that the effect remains significant. The results are stable even when controlling for present-day pollution and focusing on counties with no production for the last five years.
Economic Identities: Cultural Attachment to Oil [32:10]
The presenter defines "oil identities" as a sense of individual and community attachment toward the resource or industry, summarized by positive beliefs regarding the industry's contribution. Anecdotal evidence includes festivals, business rebranding, and changes in children's vocabulary. Quantitatively, the study uses sports teams as a proxy, finding that after oil is found, the probability of having sports teams named after oil-related terms increases. The presenter argues that oil companies act as providers of public goods, similar to how state provision of public goods fosters national identity. Companies organize social events and sponsor conferences, which are advertised in newspapers.
Public Goods and Industry Size [37:24]
The presenter discusses how the size of oil firms impacts the formation of economic identities. In regions where geological conditions allow individuals to easily drill wells, there are many small firms. In other regions, larger firms with 10-30 wells are more common. These larger firms are more likely to engage in public good provision. The study finds that in places where firms are bigger, there are more identities, as proxied by artists building up, and the impact of decades of producing all exploration is twice as big. The presenter concludes by reiterating that the industry, along with others, has impacted climate change beliefs, and addressing these beliefs requires considering both the material and cultural elements they question.