Brief Summary
This conversation with Annie Jacobsen, an investigative journalist, centers on the alarming realities of nuclear war, government secrecy, and the balance between national security and global annihilation. Jacobsen highlights the devastating potential of a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia, estimating a death toll of 5 billion people. She explores the launch on warning policy, sole presidential authority, and the critical six-minute window for decision-making, emphasizing the insanity and potential for miscalculation. The discussion covers tactical nukes, missile interceptor systems, and the grim prospects of nuclear winter, while also touching on extrasensory perception, Area 51, and CIA assassinations. Jacobsen underscores the importance of communication and wisdom in preventing nuclear war, offering a stark warning about the future of humanity.
- Nuclear war could kill 5 billion people.
- The US president has sole authority and just six minutes to decide whether to launch a counterattack.
- Deterrence is a fragile concept that collapses once a launch occurs.
- Tactical nukes are a dangerous escalation.
- Intelligence agencies and new weapon systems are key concerns.
Introduction
The United States possesses 1,770 deployed nuclear weapons ready for launch within 60 seconds to a couple of minutes, while Russia has 1,674 similar weapons. The existence of 12,500 nuclear weapons among nine nations raises concerns about potential nuclear conflict. The consequences include being sucked into a nuclear stem with 300 mph winds and a mushroom cloud blocking out the sun, followed by radiation poisoning. The concept of launch on warning and sole presidential authority means a nuclear war could start with a misunderstanding or miscalculation.
Nuclear war
Annie Jacobsen discusses the grim realities of nuclear war, estimating that a conflict between the United States and Russia could kill 5 billion people. She emphasizes the importance of understanding the horrific details of nuclear war, from launch to nuclear winter, without delving into politics or national security maneuvers. Jacobsen's sources, including former Secretaries of Defense and nuclear weapons engineers, share the consensus that nuclear war is insane. Millions, then tens of millions, and eventually hundreds of millions of people would die in the first 72 minutes, followed by billions due to starvation during nuclear winter. Richard Garwin, a nuclear weapons engineer, believes that one nihilistic madman with a nuclear arsenal could start a nuclear war.
Launch procedure
The US early warning system, SBIRS, uses satellites to detect ICBM launches, initiating the launch on warning policy for a counterstrike. The President has six minutes to decide on a response, highlighting the concept of sole presidential authority. Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta noted that presidents often don't fully grasp their nuclear responsibilities until faced with the reality. The launch process involves confirmation from ground radar systems, notifying the President, Secretary of Defense, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, underscoring the immediacy and weight of the decision.
Deterrence
Presidents understand deterrence, the concept of maintaining massive nuclear arsenals to prevent war. However, the discussion shifts to the possibility of deterrence failing, a particularly concerning scenario given current global conflicts and leaders making nuclear threats. Deterrence assumes no one will launch, but this collapses once a launch occurs, leaving a six-minute decision on whether to retaliate and risk global annihilation. The arsenals of the United States and Russia, with the ability to launch weapons in seconds and minutes, highlight the madness of mutually assured destruction (MAD). National security advisors acknowledge the possibility of nuclear war, emphasizing the need to understand the implications.
Tactical nukes
The use of a tactical nuclear weapon could be a catalyst for full-scale nuclear war. Strategic weapons include ICBMs, bombers (B-52s and B-2s), and submarine-launched missiles, forming the nuclear triad. ICBMs cannot be recalled or redirected once launched. President Reagan once mistakenly stated that submarine-launched ballistic missiles could be recalled, highlighting a lack of knowledge among leaders. Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller warheads designed for battlefield use, a scenario Russia is threatening. The UN Secretary General warns that crossing the line of no nuclear use would be devastating.
Nuclear submarines
Nuclear submarines, serving as a second-strike capacity, are as dangerous to civilization as asteroids, being unstoppable and unlocatable. Admiral Michael Conner stated that finding a submarine under the sea is harder than finding a grapefruit-sized object in space. These submarines, operated by various nations, are approaching the coasts of the United States within a couple of hundred miles, enabling a strike in under 10 minutes. Submarines launch missiles from 150 feet below the surface, showcasing stunning and shocking technology.
Nuclear missiles
The United States has 400 underground missile silos, known as Minuteman, capable of launching in one minute after the president's order. Submarines take about 14 to 15 minutes from launch command to actual launch. The locations of these silos are publicly available. Russia uses road-mobile launchers, making their ICBMs harder to target. The United States relies on submarines for second-strike capability. It is difficult to escape the catch-22 of needing nuclear weapons for safety because other nations possess them.
Nuclear football
The nuclear football, a leather satchel, accompanies the President and Vice President, enabling nuclear launch within six minutes. The satchel contains the PEAD (Presidential Emergency Action Directives), which have never been leaked. According to a former mill aid, Buzz Patterson, the President uses a laminated plastic list, resembling a Denny's menu, to choose targets and weapon systems. An identical black book is in the Stratcom bunker in Nebraska. Three command bunkers are involved: the Pentagon, Cheyenne Mountain, and Stratcom. The Pentagon is the heart, Cheyenne Mountain is the brains, and Stratcom is the muscle. The Stratcom commander receives launch orders and directs 150,000 people. The doomsday plane launches from Stratcom, flying in circles around the United States for airborne nuclear launch capability.
Missile interceptor system
The United States has a limited interceptor system with only 44 interceptor missiles, which have a 50% success rate. Forty are in Alaska, and four are at Vandenberg Air Force Base in Santa Barbara. These interceptors launch about nine minutes into a scenario, attempting to destroy incoming warheads with force. The interceptor program is currently on strategic pause due to ineffectiveness. Systems like THAAD and Edge can shoot down some rockets but cannot handle a full-scale attack.
North Korea
North Korea possesses approximately 50 nuclear weapons, though some NGOs estimate over 100. North Korea is the only nuclear-armed nation that does not announce ballistic missile tests, increasing the risk of accidental nuclear war. In a scenario involving a North Korean one-megaton weapon, the interceptor system would likely fail, with all four interceptor missiles missing the target. There have been at least six known close calls where nuclear war was narrowly avoided due to mistakes.
Nuclear war scenarios
The Pentagon runs classified nuclear war gaming scenarios, such as Proud Prophet in 1983, which involved 60,000 nuclear weapons. These scenarios consistently conclude that nuclear war ends in Armageddon, regardless of how it starts. The concept of "escalate to deescalate" involves a massive response to any nuclear strike. However, a flaw exists: US ICBMs launched against North Korea would have to fly over Russia, risking further escalation. Communication breakdowns, as seen during the Ukraine war, exacerbate the risk of accidental Armageddon.
Warmongers
The advisors around the President during the six-minute window include the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who also have to consider continuity of government. "Jamming the president" refers to military advisors pushing for an aggressive counterattack. While war mongers may seek power, nuclear war negates this. Historically, some believed nuclear war could be won, but the prevailing thought now is that it cannot be won and must never be fought.
President's cognitive ability
Cognitive abilities and judgment are critical for the President, especially during the six-minute window. The President must make quick decisions based on limited information, balancing advice from advisors with the need to consider errors and global geopolitics. The President's character is essential, as wars are fought by the young, and good decisions about war are crucial. The President's role is to choose targets from the "Denny's menu" and authenticate the launch order with a code from the "biscuit."
Refusing orders
It is unlikely that the Stratcom commander would defy orders, as they are typically individuals who follow orders. However, during COVID, Stratcom commanders spoke out more publicly, suggesting they might defy an unreliable presidential order. The ultimate decision rests on the nuclear launch decision, making it crucial to elect trustworthy individuals. The Stratcom commander delivers launch orders to the nuclear triad, and then what's done is done.
Russia and Putin
Experts like Pavel Podvig provide insights into the Russian side of nuclear forces, which are similar to those of the United States, except that Russia has a flawed satellite system called Tundra. Tundra can mistake sunlight for flames or clouds for a nuclear launch. Putin has shifted Russian nuclear policy, stating they will launch upon detecting missile trajectories. Putin's background as an intelligence officer suggests a mindset of paranoia, potentially leading to trigger-happy responses.
Cyberattack
The nuclear command and control system functions on analog systems, making it resistant to cyber attacks. However, cyber attacks could disrupt communication after a nuclear strike, leading to chaos. The biggest fear in Washington D.C. is a bolt out of the blue attack against the Pentagon. A one-megaton nuclear weapon would create a fireball of 180 million degrees, leaving nothing behind.
Ground zero of nuclear war
A nuclear blast would cause a blast wave, knocking everything down, followed by mega fires. People would suffer third and fourth-degree radiation burns, with winds ripping skin off faces. The sucking action of the mushroom cloud would pull people into the stem. The power grid would fail, and systems would collapse. FEMA plans for asteroid strikes but acknowledges there is no population protection after a nuclear strike.
Surviving nuclear war
Survivors would face a primitive fight for food and water. FEMA director Craig Fugate stated that after a nuclear strike, there is no population protection. Military bases would eventually run out of diesel fuel, causing them to cease functioning.
Nuclear winter
After the bombs stop falling, mega fires would begin, lofting 300 billion pounds of soot into the air, blocking out the sun and causing nuclear winter. Temperatures would plummet, agriculture would fail, and food sources would shut down. Radiation poisoning would kill many, and after the nuclear winter ends, the depleted ozone layer would make the sun's rays poisonous. Pathogens and plague would spread, leading to the extinction of larger-bodied animals. Professor Brian Toon compared nuclear war to the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs.
Alien civilizations
It is unknown if some humans will survive, but civilization would likely collapse, with people returning to a hunter-gatherer state. Future civilizations might rediscover buried sites like Gobekli Tepe, the oldest known archeological site. The lessons of nuclear war might be forgotten, leading to mythological interpretations. The mysteries of the human mind and alien civilizations are coupled, raising questions about the purpose and future of humanity.
Extrasensory perception
The military and intelligence communities are interested in the human mind and consciousness. ESP programs began after World War II, influenced by Nazi occult programs. The CIA believed in ESP but found it uncontrollable and unreliable. The military's attempts to systematize ESP were unsuccessful. A Navy program studies soldiers' "spidey sense." The Thomas theorem states, "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."
Area 51
Area 51 is a top-secret military facility used to test aerospace programs. It began as a site for the U-2 spy plane and later the A-12 Oxcart. The pilots, many of whom were World War II heroes, enjoyed perks like lobster deliveries.
UFOs and aliens
There is no evidence that aliens have ever visited Earth. The CIA has engaged in strategic deception campaigns, such as the UFO disinformation campaign during the U-2 era. The story of Paul Bennewitz, who was destroyed by the Air Force for seeing a UFO, illustrates this. Sexy stories like UFOs are leveraged for strategic deception.
Roswell incident
The Roswell incident may have been a black propaganda hoax by Stalin to cause mass hysteria in the United States. The source for this information was Al O'Donnell, a nuclear weapons engineer. The United States government decided to create a similar program, leading to human experiments.
CIA assassinations
The CIA has a history of assassination programs, with names like the Health Alteration Committee. Executive Order 12333 prohibits assassination but can be overwritten. The CIA operates under Title 50, which allows the President to do what they want. The killing of Bin Laden was a CIA mission, with the Navy Seals being "sheep-dipped." Women are also part of special activities divisions and can be more effective in certain situations.
Navalny
Alexei Navalny's death in prison resembles Russia's history of assassinating dissidents. The story of KGB assassin Khokhlov illustrates this. It appears Russia is acting in the same vein, taking care of dissidents.
KGB
The CIA tries to maintain a semblance of democratic ideals, while the KGB exhibits a totalitarian ruthlessness. The civilian sector has taken over much of the surveillance work previously done by the NSA, with individuals willingly sharing personal information.
Hitler and the atomic bomb
Hitler did not develop the atomic bomb due to his prejudice against "Jewish science." Dropping the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki ended the war, saving lives. The decision to develop the thermonuclear bomb was more confounding, as it is a weapon of genocide.
War and human nature
The story of the human race is war, but there is hope that humans can evolve beyond it. It is important to bring information to people so they can have these discussions.
Hope
It is important to be a good example and believe in the next generation. The human factor of the desire to fight needs to be reconfigured, as the peril is growing at an accelerating pace.
