TLDR;
In this YouTube video, Moritz Hessel interviews investor Simon Betschinger about various investment trends and opportunities. They discuss value stocks like Hannover Rück and Allianz, the potential of AI to drive global productivity, and mega-trends such as prediction markets, humanoid robotics, and space commercialization. They also analyze Big Tech companies like Alphabet, Tesla, Oracle, and Nvidia, and provide insights into specific stocks and investment strategies for 2026.
- Value stocks like Hannover Rück and Allianz offer attractive dividends and growth potential.
- AI has the potential to drive global productivity and create new investment opportunities.
- Prediction markets, humanoid robotics, and space commercialization are mega-trends with significant growth potential.
- Big Tech companies like Alphabet, Tesla, Oracle, and Nvidia are key players in the AI and technology landscape.
- Specific stocks like Robin Hood, CBOE, Striker, and Rocketlab offer unique investment opportunities.
Value-Werte: Rückversicherer [1:21]
Simon Betschinger highlights the attractiveness of value stocks, particularly in the reinsurance sector. He mentions Münchner Rück and Hannover Rück as examples of dividend-increasing machines with favorable valuations. Münchner Rück projects an average profit growth of 8% annually until 2030, while Hannover Rück offers a dividend yield of 4.5%. Betschinger emphasizes that these stocks provide a combination of safety, market position, and growth prospects that are rare to find. He plans to invest further in Hannover Rück due to its attractive dividend yield and sector outlook.
Marktpessimismus vs. Globaler Produktivitätssteigerung, Welt-ETFs [5:09]
The discussion shifts to market pessimism and the potential for global productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence. While acknowledging concerns about high market valuations, Betschinger argues that AI could lead to unprecedented growth, particularly in developing countries like India and Africa. He suggests that a Morningstar Developed Market Dividend Leaders ETF, which focuses on dividend-increasing stocks, can provide exposure to value stocks and outperform traditional world ETFs. He notes that the insurance sector, for example, can automate processes using AI, leading to increased profit margins for value stocks.
Liberation Day, Marktbewertung, Small Caps [8:54]
The conversation addresses market capitalization and the performance of equal-weight indices since the "Liberation Day." Betschinger notes that the rally has been concentrated in a few large-cap stocks, particularly those related to AI. He advises against deviating from market-cap-weighted indices, as empirical studies on equal weight and small-cap factors have not held up in recent years. He believes that the "winner takes all" economy favors market-cap-weighted ETFs, combined with targeted value and quality through dividend ETFs.
McDonalds & Coca Cola: Analyse [10:41]
Betschinger discusses the potential of using options strategies, specifically short puts, on stable stocks like McDonald's and Coca-Cola. He explains that these stocks offer annualized returns of 20-30% through time decay, making them attractive for experienced investors with sufficient capital. To write a short put on McDonald's, one must be prepared to buy 100 shares at the strike price. This strategy is particularly suitable in a sideways-moving market, allowing investors to profit from time value without significant risk.
Mega-Trend: Prognose-Markt-Portale (Polymarket) [13:25]
The discussion moves to the emerging trend of prediction markets, exemplified by platforms like Polymarket. These platforms allow users to trade on the likelihood of various events, from political outcomes to sports results. Robinhood has seen significant activity in this area, with one million customers conducting nine billion transactions in prediction markets. Major exchanges like the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and CBOE are also entering the prediction market space, indicating its growing acceptance and potential. Betschinger highlights Robinhood and CBOE as companies that could benefit from this trend.
Mega-Trend: Operations-Roboter & Humanoide Robotik [21:51]
The conversation shifts to the field of humanoid and surgical robots, highlighting the advancements and investment opportunities in this sector. Intuitive Surgical is a market leader in surgical robots for urology, abdominal, and cardiac procedures, while Stryker is making significant progress in orthopedics, particularly in knee and hip replacements. Betschinger emphasizes the importance of established players in the surgical robot market, as patients are more likely to choose robots with a proven track record. He is invested in Stryker and is also watching Globus Medical for its position in spinal surgery.
Big Tech Entwicklung: Alphabet, Autonomes Fahren, Tesla [29:48]
The discussion turns to autonomous driving and its potential economic impact. Betschinger believes that autonomous driving will lead to a significant productivity boost by freeing up people's time spent driving. He notes that Morgan Stanley projects substantial growth in the autonomous driving market, with Tesla and Waymo expected to dominate. However, he argues that Morgan Stanley's projections may be too conservative, as Tesla's ability to produce autonomous vehicles at scale could accelerate market growth. He believes that Tesla and Alphabet are the most straightforward ways to invest in the autonomous driving trend.
Big Tech: Oracle, Alphabet, Open AI, NVIDIA [37:34]
The conversation shifts to the dominance of Alphabet in key technologies and its potential to become the world's most valuable company. Betschinger highlights Alphabet's advantage in artificial intelligence due to its vast data resources and custom TPUs. He also discusses the role of OpenAI and Microsoft Copilot in the AI landscape, noting that different AIs will have different use cases. He believes that Oracle's stock is undervalued due to concerns about the success of ChatGPT, which he believes will be a success.
Weltraum-Aktien: SpaceX, RocketLabs, Starlink [46:26]
The discussion turns to the commercialization of space, highlighting Starlink's success in providing internet access worldwide. Betschinger mentions Elon Musk's plan to build AI data centers in space, which Alphabet's CEO has also announced. He notes that SpaceX's Starship rocket will significantly reduce transportation costs to space, opening up new possibilities. While acknowledging potential bottlenecks in launch availability, he sees opportunities in companies like Rocket Lab, which provide alternative launch services.
Ausblick 2026: Alle Trend-Sektoren [52:53]
In the concluding segment, Betschinger shares his investment outlook for 2026. He favors time value strategies, such as selling puts on Oracle, and expects sideways movement in the tech sector due to high valuations. He sees opportunities in value stocks like Hannover Rück and Münchner Rück, as well as in exchange operators and Stryker. He believes that Meta has the potential for a significant comeback due to the increasing popularity of AI-generated videos on Instagram.
