Big Breakout In Banking? I Tuesday Technical Talk I Vishal B Malkan

TLDR;

This video by Malkansview provides a technical analysis of the banking sector, focusing on identifying strong banking stocks showing breakout potential. It covers market trends, particularly in Nifty and Bank Nifty, and highlights the outperformance of PSU banks. The video also touches upon the importance of fundamental analysis over reliance on numerology and astrology, while analyzing a specific stock, Union Bank, using a top-down approach (monthly, weekly, daily charts) and a seven-step checklist for making informed trading decisions.

• Analysis of Nifty and Bank Nifty, noting Bank Nifty's relative strength.
• PSU banks are highlighted due to their recent breakouts.
• Detailed analysis of Union Bank using monthly, weekly, and daily charts.
• A seven-step checklist for analyzing stocks is presented, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to trading decisions.

Introduction [0:01]

Vishal welcomes viewers to Tuesday Technical Talk, explaining that the channel focuses on chart analysis for traders of all experience levels. The session will involve a detailed analysis of a specific chart, similar to the previous week's analysis of Inox, covering various aspects from monthly to daily perspectives, including momentum and indicators, to guide viewers on making informed buy or sell decisions.

Market Overview: Nifty and Bank Nifty [0:45]

Nifty is consolidating within a range defined by the budget low and tariff high, with the RSI hovering between 40 and 60, indicating a sideways trend. Bank Nifty, however, is showing more strength, trading above its daily 60 level and attempting to break above the tariff high. This suggests Bank Nifty is outperforming Nifty, a positive sign for the overall market. PSU banks are experiencing new breakouts.

Addressing Market Crash Predictions [2:11]

Vishal addresses concerns about predictions of a market crash around the 17th to 20th of the month, cautioning against blindly following numerology and astrology. He announces a free workshop on March 7th, "How to Invest in 2026," which will explore market analysis from a numerological perspective, examining how markets have reacted in previous "number one" years. Currently, there are no signs indicating an imminent market crash, especially with Bank Nifty attempting to reach new highs.

PSU Banks Sector Analysis [3:24]

PSU banks are the top-performing sector, up by 2%. The video highlights a significant breakout in the PSU bank sector chart. Mentions specific banks within this sector, such as Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, State Bank of India, and Union Bank.

Union Bank Stock Analysis: Monthly Chart [3:49]

The analysis begins with a top-down approach, starting with the monthly chart of Union Bank. The stock has been steadily building a base and moving upwards. The stock first shifted its range, indicating it would not go lower, then established a higher bottom at 40. After crossing the monthly 60, it took support at the weekly 60, signaling strong upward momentum. The stock has reached its previous resistance zone and is now attempting to cross a high, potentially forming a 10-year cup pattern from 2015-16. A resistance level is identified around ₹204-205, based on shadows in the chart. Accumulation is evident from the green volumes since the range shift, indicating positive activity.

Union Bank Stock Analysis: Weekly Chart [6:00]

The weekly chart shows that the stock was trading sideways for the past few weeks but has now broken out, surpassing the high of the last five weeks near ₹180. This breakout indicates increasing momentum in the market.

Union Bank Stock Analysis: Daily Chart [6:30]

The daily chart reveals a squeeze open, characterized by expanding Bollinger Bands, indicating increasing volatility. This pattern, where the bands resemble an alligator's mouth, suggests a potential for significant price movement.

Seven-Step Checklist for Stock Analysis [6:59]

Vishal outlines a seven-step checklist for analyzing stocks:

1. Price: Is the price making new highs, as seen with today's breakout?
2. Pattern: Is there a bullish pattern, such as a big green candle?
3. Volume: Is the volume high?
4. Momentum: Is the momentum above 60 on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts?
5. Volatility: Are the Bollinger Bands expanding?
6. Sentiment: What is the overall market sentiment, particularly for PSU banks and the banking sector?
7. Time Analysis: Are there any time-based predictions or cycles to consider?

Risk Management and Mindset [7:53]

After analysis, determine the course of action: whether to buy, and if so, what the risk-reward ratio is. Decide whether to buy immediately or wait for a better entry point that aligns with your stop-loss strategy. Finally, assess your mindset to ensure you are making rational decisions. This checklist approach, similar to a pilot's pre-flight checks, is crucial for managing risk and making informed trading decisions.

Disclaimer and Workshop Information [8:54]

The video includes a disclaimer stating that the analysis is for educational purposes only and not a stock recommendation. Viewers are advised to take their own risk. Vishal encourages viewers to join the free workshop on March 7th, which will cover numerology, sector analysis, and strategies in detail. He also asks viewers to comment on what they liked best about the analysis and encourages non-subscribers to subscribe to the channel. He highlights the 3x3 series, which offers comprehensive technical analysis in short videos.