TLDR;
This video discusses the future trends and vision of the Vietnamese real estate market over the next 20 years. It highlights the importance of understanding macroeconomic factors, particularly the declining birth rate and the current period of "golden population," and how these factors will influence investment strategies in the real estate sector. The video suggests that strategic investments in well-chosen projects during this period are crucial for long-term wealth building, as the country undergoes rapid infrastructure development and urbanisation.
- Declining birth rates and its impact on the economy.
- The significance of the "golden population" period.
- The importance of infrastructure development and urbanisation.
- Strategic real estate investment for long-term wealth.
Introduction [0:00]
The video begins by addressing concerns from viewers about investing in the current market. It emphasises the importance of understanding the broader market trends, particularly the macroeconomic factors that will shape Vietnam's economy over the next 20 years. The speaker highlights that while real estate cycles typically last 8-10 years, there are more significant, long-term factors at play.
The Declining Birth Rate [1:16]
The video addresses a critical macroeconomic factor: the declining birth rate in Vietnam. While the country is experiencing rapid development and infrastructure investment, the birth rate has dropped from 2.1 before 2020 to 1.9 by 2025. This decline is a concern because a rate below 2.1 leads to a population decrease. The speaker draws a parallel with other developed countries where higher development correlates with lower birth rates, potentially leading to an ageing population and associated economic challenges.
The Experiment of Rats [4:08]
The speaker references an experiment with rats to illustrate the potential consequences of unchecked prosperity. In the experiment, rats provided with abundant resources initially thrived, but eventually lost their survival instincts and reproductive drive, leading to the collapse of their society. This analogy is used to highlight the potential dangers of a society becoming too comfortable, leading to a decline in birth rates and other societal problems.
Global Comparison and Vietnam's "Golden Population" [6:31]
The video compares birth rates globally, noting that less developed countries in Africa tend to have higher birth rates. Vietnam is currently in a "golden population" phase, with a large working-age population driving economic growth. However, the declining birth rate threatens this advantage, potentially leading to an aged population within 20 years. This shift could burden the government with increased social security and healthcare costs, slowing economic development.
Government Efforts and Infrastructure Investment [8:38]
The speaker explains that the Vietnamese government is investing heavily in infrastructure to capitalise on the "golden population" period. This investment aims to boost economic growth and urbanisation, with a target of 65-70% urbanisation. Unlike developed countries with established infrastructure, Vietnam's focus on infrastructure development is crucial for its continued growth. The speaker mentions the slogan "decade of vươn mình" which means 10 years to reach out.
Real Estate Opportunities and Future Challenges [11:39]
The current period is described as a "golden phase" for real estate investment. Failure to invest strategically during this time could result in a situation where property becomes unaffordable for the younger generation, similar to conditions in developed countries like South Korea and Japan. The speaker notes that while developed countries see centralisation in major cities, Vietnam is still in the phase of expanding infrastructure and urban areas.
Investment Strategy and Market Outlook [13:21]
The video suggests that the government's investment in infrastructure will inevitably lead to inflation and increased property values. This makes it a crucial time to invest in real estate to build wealth for the future. The speaker warns that after this phase, property prices may become prohibitively high, making it difficult for young people to own homes.
Long-Term Vision and Investment Philosophy [15:51]
The speaker reiterates the importance of a long-term investment strategy focused on building assets. They highlight the fundamental nature of a "paper asset economy," where printing money is inevitable, and the fact that Vietnam is a developing country investing heavily in infrastructure. These factors suggest that property values will increase over time. The key is to select good, viable projects with real value.
Conclusion [18:05]
The video concludes by urging viewers to consider the broader market trends before making investment decisions. The combination of a developing economy, infrastructure investment, and the nature of the financial system makes real estate growth likely. The focus should be on choosing the right type of property and investment goals. The speaker emphasises that the current investment strategy should not be short-term but aimed at building substantial assets for the future.
