Brief Summary
This YouTube video by Trade The Pool provides a comprehensive overview of current market trends, potential trading strategies, and economic factors influencing investment decisions. The hosts analyse the impact of Trump's tariffs, discuss specific stock plays, and offer insights into the broader economic landscape. Key takeaways include the importance of monitoring consumer spending, understanding the implications of the big beautiful bill, and adapting trading strategies to the current market environment.
- Analysis of market trends and potential trading strategies.
- Discussion of economic factors, including Trump's tariffs and their impact.
- Insights into specific stock plays and sector rotations.
Introduction
The video begins with a welcome and an immediate dive into market activity, noting the passage of Trump's bill by the July 4th deadline. The host highlights the day's agenda, which includes examining the overall market performance, reviewing a watch list, and analysing various sectors. The initial market overview indicates positive momentum on the S&P 500 (SPY), with a recent expansion move of approximately 3.5%.
Playbook: Stock Analysis and Potential Trades
The host discusses several stocks, starting with Block (XYZ) and its strength in the payment space, also mentioning PayPal and Toast as other names to watch. SoFi is highlighted as a retail favourite with the potential to reach £23 by the end of the year, advising viewers to watch for a breakout with increasing volume. News regarding Coreweave's acquisition of Core Scientific (Core Z) is discussed, noting the deal's complexity and its negative impact on both stocks. The host considers a swing trade on Core Z, citing an overreaction to the news and anticipating a potential recovery.
Playbook Continued: Retail Sector and Market Momentum
The focus shifts to Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), which has been performing well following Nike's report. A pullback is anticipated, offering better entry points for swing trades, with a target of £79. The host also examines the broader retail space, noting the potential for the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) to reach all-time highs. Other retail players like Bath & Body Works and Dillard's are mentioned, with Gap highlighted as having a significant gap to close.
Sunrise Report: Market Influences and Key Events
The Sunrise Report begins with a recap of weekend market activity, noting that futures were sliding amid tariff confusion but ultimately gapped up. The report highlights potential trade announcements in the next 48 hours and the market's reaction to Trump's tariffs, now expected to take effect on August 1st. The report also mentions Amazon's Prime Day, running from July 8th to 11th, with projected online sales surging to £18.5 billion.
Sunrise Report Continued: Tesla, Apple, and Core Scientific
Tesla's stock fell following Elon Musk's announcement of founding the America Party. Apple is presented as having a "split personality" in the media, contrasting negative AI coverage with the success of its new F1 film. The host reiterates a focus on Core Scientific, monitoring for a potential bounce after a significant drop due to the Coreweave acquisition.
Market Analysis with Michael Nos: Core Scientific and Market Sentiment
Michael Nos joins the discussion, and the conversation quickly turns to Core Scientific. The host expresses confusion over the stock's decline despite a buyout offer at a premium, eventually deciding to cut the position for a small loss. Michael explains the typical risk arbitrage trade and why Core Scientific's current behaviour is perplexing. He also notes discrepancies in S&P 500 data across different instruments, indicating some market strangeness.
Market Analysis Continued: Pullback Opportunities and Tesla
Michael suggests that a pullback day would be beneficial for identifying stocks holding up well. He mentions Weeble as a potential pullback play and notes that crypto is holding up relatively well. He observes that the equal-weighted S&P 500 is outperforming the cap-weighted index, suggesting that Tesla is weighing down the market. Michael also discusses a potential Tesla trade, looking to fade the gap caused by Elon Musk's social media activity.
Core Scientific Revisited: Confusion and Potential Algorithmic Issues
The discussion returns to Core Scientific, with both hosts expressing continued confusion over the stock's price action. Michael notes that even risk arbitrage specialists are puzzled. The host speculates about a potential algorithmic error causing the initial drop and considers re-entering the trade if it clears £11.84. Michael emphasizes the rarity of such events in computerized trading and the importance of understanding the underlying reasons for the move.
Trading Strategies and Market Observations
The conversation shifts to trading strategies, with a focus on Bitcoin and Robinhood (HOOD). Michael notes that while everything is bullish in the long run, short-term overextension makes trading difficult. He suggests focusing on short-term gap fades and swing trading opportunities. Apple and AMD are mentioned as potential stocks to watch for pullbacks.
Market Open and Initial Trades
The market opens, and the hosts discuss initial moves. The host gets triggered into a swing trade on Bull and monitors Core Scientific, while Michael tests automated trading systems. The host gets stopped out of Core Scientific again, expressing frustration. They discuss the importance of recognising that markets don't always move logically.
Automated Trading and Market Analysis
Michael shares his experience with automated trading, noting successful execution of stop-loss and profit target orders. He highlights the potential for creating indicators in TradingView or Trendspider and sending them to Trade the Pool for automated trading. The hosts analyse the SPY, noting an undercut of pre-market lows and a potential rip-and-dip scenario.
Sector Performance and Potential Bottoming Plays
Real estate is the only sector in the green, while IWM is getting hit the worst. The host adds TQQQ to his list, looking for a potential move through the VWAP. He also monitors gold, anticipating a potential downside move. Michael notes that the Q's are struggling to get back above a certain level and that ANF is performing well.
Dust Trade and Market Consolidation
The host takes a position in Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2x Shares (DUST), anticipating a bottom. Michael discusses the start of summer trading, noting that afternoons are generally choppy. He highlights strong moves in Gap and other apparel stocks. The host gets stopped out of DUST, marking his strike three for the day.
Systematic Trading and Market Themes
The hosts discuss the potential for building a systematic trading strategy, focusing on stocks that have undercut their pre-market lows. Michael emphasizes the emotional benefits of systematic trading and the potential for taking a high volume of small positions. He also mentions being long Tesla through a fully automated system.
Ethereum and Crypto Market Analysis
The conversation shifts to Ethereum, with the host noting a potential setup. Michael observes that Ethereum and Solana are outperforming Bitcoin. He cautions against relying on BMNR as an Ethereum play, suggesting SBET as a better alternative. Michael also highlights Ripple's potential breakout and discusses leveraged Ripple and Solana ETFs.
Trading Rules and Market Observations
The host reiterates his three-strikes-and-you're-out rule, emphasizing the importance of sticking to trading plans. Michael discusses the potential for building a systematic trading strategy and the importance of adapting to different market conditions. He also highlights the importance of having an accountability partner in trading.
BTBT and Ethereum Discussion
The hosts discuss BTBT, noting its recent news regarding Ethereum holdings. They congratulate a listener who passed their evaluation account. Michael emphasizes the importance of starting slow and building an early cushion in funded accounts. The hosts also discuss the importance of having a support group and accountability partners in trading.
Market Outlook and Ethereum Potential
The hosts discuss the market's current state, noting that it's a mixed market with no clear direction. Michael emphasizes the importance of chilling out and waiting for the market to provide evidence of a profitable move. The hosts also discuss the potential for Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin, noting its relative weakness and potential for a double in price.
Big Beautiful Bill: Energy Sector and Carbon Credits
The discussion shifts to the big beautiful bill and its potential trading implications. The host discusses an energy sector rotation outlook, noting potential margin compression for smaller explorers and opportunities in more diversified energy firms. He also highlights the impact of carbon credit rollbacks, potentially benefiting coal players like BTU.
Agricultural Uplift and Equipment Cycle
The host discusses the agricultural uplift and equipment cycle, noting that the bill helps farmers by creating a floor on grains and encouraging investment in yield-boosting equipment. He suggests long grain futures and overweighting agricultural equipment manufacturers like Deere (CAT). The hosts also mention the reinstatement of a tax code provision allowing for 100% depreciation of equipment costs in the first year.
Fiscal Deficits, Fixed Income, and Financial Sector
The hosts discuss fiscal deficits and fixed income outlooks, noting the importance of watching the bond market's reaction. They also highlight the potential for looser lending policies to benefit the financial sector, with SoFi mentioned as a potential high-growth stock. The hosts note that financial earnings are coming up and that it's a common play to see these names run up into earnings.
Market Dynamics and Economic Factors
The hosts discuss the impact of the bill on credit and consumer lending, noting that it could lead to looser underwriting and more fees for banks. They also discuss the potential for higher interest rates to benefit companies with strong cash positions, while lower rates could benefit smaller companies and biotechs. The hosts emphasize the importance of monitoring economic factors and adapting trading strategies accordingly.
Tariffs, Market Outlook, and Sector Rotation
The hosts discuss the upcoming tariff deadline and its potential impact on the market. They note that the market has been chopping around, waiting for a big event to occur. Michael highlights the move in tobacco stocks as a potential bad sign for markets. The hosts also discuss the potential for sector rotation, with consumer-facing stocks starting to do better.
Commodities and Market Analysis
The hosts discuss commodities, noting the potential for silver and uranium. Michael emphasizes the importance of trend following in the commodity space. The hosts also discuss the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the marijuana stock sector. They note that the Q's are bouncing and that it's important to wait for Trump to say something before making any major moves.
Earnings and Market Drivers
The hosts conclude by emphasizing the importance of earnings as a driver of the market. They note that earnings have been going higher and that it's okay to have a little bit of a shake here. The hosts reiterate the importance of staying with the trend and adapting to changing market conditions.
