Brief Summary
This YouTube video by Sir Pickle provides a detailed economic news calendar forecast for the upcoming week, focusing on key events and potential trading setups. The analysis covers the dollar, major forex pairs, crude oil, gold, silver, and indices like NASDAQ, offering insights into market bias, order flow, and potential trading strategies.
- Economic calendar analysis highlights key news events and their potential impact on market volatility.
- Top-down analysis of the dollar (DXY) to establish a bias for major forex pairs.
- Examination of individual assets, including crude oil, gold, silver and NASDAQ.
- Introduction to the pulse model, a four-step intraday trading strategy.
Intro and Setup
The video begins with a welcome and sound check, followed by a brief guitar interlude as viewers trickle in. Sir Pickle shares a personal anecdote about how a back injury led him to take up guitar, illustrating the importance of framing negative events positively. He also mentions the chorus, a project in the works that has faced delays but is still planned for release this year.
Economic News Calendar
Sir Pickle starts by emphasising the importance of the economic calendar as a roadmap for the week, highlighting that news injects volatility into the market. Monday is expected to be low probability due to a lack of news and its position as the day before CPI data release. Tuesday features CPI data, with live eval expeditions planned in the Discord. Wednesday offers more trading opportunities with PPI and GBP CPI data. Thursday has USD news, while Friday is expected to be quiet. The week is structured like a sandwich, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday being the most active trading days. He suggests that CPI might manipulate into a weekly fair value gap, potentially setting up long positions for the rest of the week.
Dollar (DXY) Analysis
The dollar is analysed from a top-down perspective, starting with the monthly chart. The focus is on order flow, fair value gaps, and candlestick logic to determine bias. The previous week's high is a key level to watch; the reaction after trading above it will indicate whether the dollar will sweep and reject (bearish) or run higher (bullish). Shorter-term targets are identified using unmitigated opposing PD arrays, with a liquidity void marked as a potential target. Sir Pickle states a preference for a bearish dollar to align with a Euro setup.
Euro (EUR/USD) Analysis
Euro analysis mirrors the dollar, moving inversely. A two-candle rejection pattern is discussed, similar to the dollar analysis. The low resistance liquidity run signature, characterised by failure swings and engineered liquidity, is a key feature. Sir Pickle would like to see a sweep of the previous week's low, followed by rejection and a push higher.
Pound (GBP/USD) Analysis
GBP/USD is assessed for its relative strength compared to the dollar and euro. If the dollar moves lower, GBP is scrapped due to not having a weakening fair value gap. If the dollar moves higher, GBP becomes interesting as a potential intraday short, targeting a specific low. The analysis highlights bearish order flow, daily fair value gaps, and daily flip context.
Other Forex Pairs (AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF)
AUD/USD and NZD/USD are dismissed due to choppy price action. USD/CAD is also avoided due to consolidation and random fair value gaps. USD/CHF is considered the weakest of the majors, aligning with a dollar bearish thesis. A weekly fair value gap is identified, and an entry alert is set using an indicator.
Crude Oil Analysis
Crude oil is not favoured due to ongoing consolidation since 2023. High probability setups occur at the external ranges of the consolidation. The current price is disrespecting a weekly bearish fair value gap. If price pushes higher, Sir Pickle would like to see price run that low, create a fair value gap overlapping with this new fair value area, and then look to potentially buy off of there.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis and Pulse Model Explanation
Gold had a good trade last week based on candlestick logic, targeting the previous week's high. The concept of a "no resistance area" is introduced, where there are no PD arrays to act as resistance. Sir Pickle then explains his pulse model, a four-step intraday trading strategy: bias, narrative, entry, and time. He breaks down a recent gold trade using this model, explaining how he identified the bias, narrative, entry point, and kill zone.
Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis
Silver is currently stronger than gold, exhibiting more directional movement. A daily breakaway gap is noted, and the preference is for a new daily fair value gap to form for potential long entries. The ideal scenario involves consolidation, manipulation, and then distribution higher.
Indices (NASDAQ) Analysis
NASDAQ is at all-time highs, with a monthly breakaway gap below. CPI data this week could act as a manipulation into higher time frame PDAs. A shift in order flow is noted after sweeping the previous week's high, with a 4-hour fair value gap being respected. The compass is currently pointing downwards, leaning bearish on indices in the short term. Sir Pickle also explains why he prefers to analyse ES and NASDAQ over YM due to their closer correlation.
Q&A and Additional Analysis (Nifty50, JPY, Crosses)
Sir Pickle answers viewer questions, including one about cryptocurrency payments for his indicator. He then briefly analyses Nifty50 and Bank Nifty, noting that Bank Nifty looks stronger. He also reviews JPY, finding it stuck in a consolidation range and less appealing than Euro or USD/CHF. He then examines several cross pairs, including AUD/JPY, Euro/JPY, and CHF/JPY, adding some to the waiting list for potential long setups.
AUD Pairs and General Trading Tips
The analysis moves to AUD pairs, with AUD/NZD being dismissed due to a lack of clarity. AUD/CAD is added to the long watch list. Sir Pickle shares a tip: if a setup doesn't immediately jump out within the first 5 seconds, it's likely not high probability. He emphasises that analysis should be easy and that excessive deliberation can be a warning sign.
CHF Pairs and Focus List
CHF pairs are generally avoided due to historically poor performance and choppy price action. Sir Pickle then reviews his focus list, organising assets based on their readiness for trading. He also discusses the importance of a paid TradingView plan for serious traders, citing the benefits of ad-free trading, more indicators, and access to replay data.
Outro
Sir Pickle concludes the stream, reminding viewers to join his Discord for updates and further discussions. He provides a link to his indicators and expresses his appreciation for the viewers' participation.
