TLDR;
This video discusses recent market trends and potential trading opportunities, focusing on the impact of Trump's announcements, NASDAQ, gold, DXY and copper analysis. It highlights a trading strategy based on reactions to Trump's announcements, a bullish outlook on NASDAQ supported by economic data, a cautious approach to gold due to its overextended state, and potential long setups in DXY and copper.
- Trading strategy based on Trump's announcements.
- Bullish outlook on NASDAQ supported by economic data.
- Cautious approach to gold due to its overextended state.
- Potential long setups in DXY and copper.
Is Trump Manipulating Markets? [0:00]
The video introduces the concept of the "taco trade," which involves capitalising on market reactions to announcements made by the US President regarding trade, particularly with China. This strategy involves observing how markets react to the President's announcements of new tariffs or trade tensions, and then taking positions based on the expectation that these announcements will be walked back or postponed. The presenter notes that those who have bought during these fear-induced sell-offs have often been rewarded, while those who sold have missed out on potential rebounds. The presenter emphasises that regardless of whether the President is intentionally manipulating the market, the key is to recognise the pattern and use it to make informed trading decisions while managing risk.
NAS100 Trade [1:50]
The presenter discusses a long position taken on the NASDAQ, citing a strong uptrend following a sell-off triggered by tariff worries. The decision to buy was influenced by the recognition of a recurring pattern where the market overreacts to Trump's announcements before a reversal. Additional confirmation from technicals, institutions, inflation data, and economic data supported the bullish outlook, with targets set above previous highs. The presenter also mentions trimming the stop loss into profit, and promotes A1 Trading's VIP signal service, which offers real-time trade sharing with full context and proof of consistent profitability.
Bank Earnings [6:21]
The presenter highlights the positive earnings reports from Bank of America and Wells Fargo, suggesting a strong state of the US economy. These reports indicate optimism around the consumer and bode well for the earnings potential of key drivers within the economy, such as the big companies in the NASDAQ (Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Google). The presenter anticipates strong earnings reports will positively impact stocks.
XAU/USD Won't Stop [8:11]
The gold market continues to rise, with the price significantly above its 200-day moving average, indicating an overextended state. While a pullback is expected in the coming weeks or months, the presenter advises against shorting gold due to the strength of the bull run. The presenter questions whether gold's rise signals a more sinister underlying issue, noting its historical tendency to rally during times of economic uncertainty. Despite the potential for a pullback based on seasonality and strong GDP data, the expectation of continued interest rate cuts by major central banks supports further bullishness in gold. Central bank buying is also off the charts. The presenter is not willing to short gold, and buying has not a great risk-to-reward profile at these levels.
DXY Analysis [15:32]
The dollar index (DXY) is pulling back, presenting a potential buy-the-dip opportunity. The presenter is already long on the dollar in several currency crosses and may add more positions. The presenter uses the EdgeFinder tool to analyse potential trade setups, focusing on major currencies. The presenter examines Dollar CAD, noting bullish technical readings, institutional activity, and sentiment, as well as positive inflation and economic growth data favouring the US dollar. However, as there is no pullback, this setup goes into the wait category.
Copper Analysis [18:05]
Copper shows a constructive rally, with a significant drop due to tariffs followed by a bounce off support. The presenter suggests that copper may be a good candidate for long setups if it drops to the support area. The presenter marks the level of support on the screen and plans to monitor copper for possible trade setups.