Brief Summary
Fabio discusses potential long positions on the Australian and New Zealand dollars due to higher-than-expected inflation in Australia and a rotation into risk-on assets. He analyses Euro/USD, Dollar Index, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, and Gold, providing insights into potential trading strategies based on fractal structure, supply and demand zones, and liquidity sweeps. He emphasises the importance of waiting for confirmations before entering positions and highlights key levels to watch for potential breakouts or reversals.
- Bullish outlook on Australian and New Zealand dollars.
- Analysis of Euro/USD, Dollar Index, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, and Gold.
- Emphasis on waiting for confirmations and key levels.
Euro/USD Analysis
Euro/USD is currently in an overall uptrend, with a bullish daily fractal structure. The market pushed down to an area of daily demand, resulting in a V-shaped reversal. Fabio is waiting for bullish confirmation within this demand zone to look for potential longs, specifically targeting a liquidity high. Alternatively, a break of the current fractal low could signal a move to short positions, targeting ascending lows. He highlights that the current area of demand isn't the strongest, with equal lows below that he'd prefer to see taken out.
Dollar Index Analysis
The Dollar Index pushed up as expected into daily supply, maintaining a bearish market structure for the immediate future. Momentum is towards the downside, aligning with the fractal structure. Fabio suggests that if the current fractal high breaks, it could indicate a liquidity swipe of equal lows, leading to potential long positions. He notes the 4-hour time frame is still fractal bullish, so he's not keen on dollar shorts, but mechanically, following the daily fractal structure down is an option if bearish on the dollar.
AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD pushed down slightly, currently inside a daily area of demand. Higher-than-expected inflation numbers are bullish for the Australian dollar. Fabio is monitoring the pair for potential reversals, keeping an eye on liquidity lows. He refined the daily demand zone to a 4-hour imbalance candle and is waiting for bullish confirmation, such as a strong breakout of descending price action or a break of the 4-hour buy before the sell down, before considering long positions.
GBP/USD Analysis
GBP/USD came back into a fractal discount zone, rejecting the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Fabio is still interested in potential downside moves. He's monitoring how the pair reacts to the current 4-hour fractal structure. A break of the current fractal high could signal a move to long positions, targeting descending highs. He's waiting for bearish confirmation on the 15-minute or 1-hour time frame, such as a break of the fractal low after pushing into an area of supply, before considering short positions.
NZD/USD Analysis
NZD/USD is pushing up higher as expected, inside an area of daily demand. Interest rates came in as expected. The fractal structure is bullish on the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour time frames. Fabio notes a manipulation of equal lows before a V-shaped reversal. He's watching to see if the current fractal high breaks, which could lead to taking out descending highs. He acknowledges the pair is very consolidative and not his preferred trading choice at the moment.
USD/CHF and USD/JPY Analysis
USD/CHF is currently retracing, with Fabio looking for further upside. He wants to see the daily supply zone broken before committing to long positions. He's considering waiting for equal lows to be taken out before looking for bullish confirmation and new longs. For USD/JPY, Fabio is monitoring for further upside but notes choppy price action. He's waiting for the 4-hour time frame to provide a clearer signal, favouring further upside despite potential manipulation.
Gold Analysis
Gold pushed down lower, grabbing liquidity. Fabio was looking for more downside, specifically a sweep of a low, before considering long positions. He describes the current price action as consolidative. While gold is still bullish on the daily and 4-hour time frames, the fractal structure is currently bearish due to manipulation. He's still favouring further upside and monitoring for long opportunities, even without a liquidity sweep.
