TLDR;
Simon Hunt discusses the potential for escalating global conflicts, economic shifts, and investment strategies in the face of a changing world order. He highlights the growing unity among countries like Russia, China, and India, and the potential for a divided world if the United States doesn't embrace multilateralism. He also touches on the possibility of war in Ukraine, a potential attack on Iran, and the implications of these events on capital markets and food prices.
- The world is potentially dividing into two sectors, with the US facing a choice to join a multilateral world or face the consequences.
- Escalation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are likely, with potential capital controls in Europe.
- BRICS nations are moving towards their own currency backed by gold, signalling a shift away from paper assets.
- Food prices are expected to rise due to various factors, including weather conditions and geopolitical tensions.
Introduction [0:00]
Danny welcomes Simon Hunt to discuss current geopolitical and economic issues. Simon highlights the significance of recent meetings and military parades in Tanzin and Beijing, pointing to a potential ultimatum issued to the United States to join a multilateral world.
The Emerging World Order [2:06]
Simon interprets President Xi's statements at the SEO address as a call for action, indicating a growing unity among nations like Russia, China, and India. He suggests that these countries are extending an invitation to the US to join a multilateral world, but are prepared to go their separate ways if the US declines. The recent military parade showcased modern equipment, signalling readiness for conflict if necessary.
Geopolitical Tensions and Potential Conflicts [5:50]
Simon anticipates an escalation of the war in Ukraine, with EU3 nations potentially intervening physically. He also suggests a possible attack on Iran before the end of the year, with Iran potentially retaliating against Israel. He notes the growing cohesion between Russia, China, and India, with India moving closer to the BRICS camp.
BRICS Currency and Shift from Paper Assets [14:06]
Simon discusses the potential for BRICS nations to introduce their own currency, supported by gold. He mentions the Shanghai Gold Exchange building gold vaults in BRICS countries, including Saudi Arabia, to facilitate oil trade in their own currencies. Central banks are increasingly looking to move away from paper assets, with silver also gaining traction as a critical mineral.
Gold Price Prediction and Market Correction [22:39]
Simon predicts a correction in the gold price, potentially dropping to around $2,800 before mid-next year, followed by the next leg of the bull market. He believes the Treasury wants to push the gold price down to accumulate more gold before a potential revaluation. He anticipates American institutions will be forced to allocate assets into the treasury market, as traditional foreign holders are selling.
Navigating the Markets and Safe Zones [31:22]
Simon advises against long-term investments due to the fractured world and potential for a deep recession by 2028. He suggests that capital controls in Europe are a high risk, potentially leading to a global recession. He identifies Hungary and Slovakia as potential safe zones within Europe, and discusses the situation in the Middle East, particularly the UAE's relationship with Iran and Israel.
Demographics, Food Prices, and Climate Change [38:34]
Simon addresses a question about the impact of declining global demographics on the economy. He highlights the immediate concern of rising food prices, influenced by factors such as weather conditions, reduced exports from Ukraine and Russia, and a potential cold winter in northeast America. He also touches on the long-term weather cycle, suggesting a shift from warming to cooling, and the re-emergence of a 90-year Midwest dust bowl cycle. He advises individuals to stock up on food and convert gardens into vegetable gardens.